Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T04:44:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7D 0x7d64…e3fd crypto 691 markets active 1h ago coverage 32d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (56 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$26 (+0%) realized +$15 · open +$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate54%363W / 315L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day56.0pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$430now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$73
7 days+$55
14 days−$48
30 days−$238
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 67% −$189
weather 24% +$59
sports 6% −$46
other 2% +$23
world 0% $0
tech 0% −$3
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (56 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 47 -1.1% -10.5% 40% 26% -4.4%
≤30d 570 -6.5% -15.4% 49% 34% -13.8%
≤90d 678 -3.1% -12.4% 54% 39% -12.2%
all 678 -3.1% -12.4% 54% 39% -12.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover56.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.4% 39% -12.2%
10% ← realistic here -20.8% 26% -20.6%
15% -28.4% 16% -28.3%
20% -35.4% 10% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

32d coverage
Net worth$430
Realized+$15
Unrealized+$11
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses363 / 315
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions13
Markets (closed)678 / 691
History coverage32d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day56.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 678 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C or below on June 23? No 97¢ 93¢ $206 $198 −$8 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C or below on June 23? No 88¢ 90¢ $108 $110 +$2 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 23? No 92¢ 92¢ $92 $92 +$0 (+0%)
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $5 $27 +$22 (+450%)
Will Federico Valverde be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Serge Gnabry be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Dion Beljo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will a player representing Egypt be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+50%)
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-98%)
Will Romelu Lukaku be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-95%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June Jun 22 $104 +$15 +14%
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 22? Jun 22 $109 +$12 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on June 22? Jun 22 $90 +$7 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 22? Jun 22 $123 +$5 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 22? Jun 22 $184 +$16 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 22? Jun 22 $142 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 22? Jun 22 $20 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 21? Jun 21 $9 +$1 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 21? Jun 21 $27 +$3 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 21? Jun 21 $10 +$14 +138%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another Middle East/Nor Jun 20 $9 −$4 -50%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? Jun 20 $4 $0 -12%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Jun 20 $4 +$5 +118%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 20? Jun 20 $31 +$17 +56%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 19? Jun 19 $7 +$24 +325%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 19? Jun 19 $6 −$4 -58%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $2 +$5 +239%
Will BetBoom win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Jude Bellingham win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Jun 18 $2 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 29°C on June 18? Jun 18 $5 −$2 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$1 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 18? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Beatriz Haddad Maia be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Jun 17 $2 −$1 -69%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? Jun 17 $2 $0 -16%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 17 $2 $0 -21%
Will the Democratic Republic of Congo win Group K in the 2026 FIFA Wor Jun 17 $2 $0 -32%
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? Jun 17 $1 $0 -4%
Will Toronto Raptors win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 17 $1 $0 +8%
Will Tatjana Maria be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Jun 17 $0 $0 +46%
Will Jorge Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 17 $1 $0 -20%
Will Cameron Boozer be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? Jun 17 $1 $0 -13%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 17 $2 −$1 -52%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $20 −$18 -91%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 17? Jun 17 $0 $0 +352%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $13 −$13 -98%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $2 $0 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $4 +$1 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 78-79°F on June 17? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C or higher on June 17? Jun 16 $1 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 16? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -89%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 +$8 +164%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C or below on June 23? BUY No 85¢ $30 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C or below on June 23? BUY No 89¢ $25 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C or below on June 23? BUY No 89¢ $54 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 23? BUY No 92¢ $28 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 23? BUY No 92¢ $32 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 23? BUY No 92¢ $32 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C or below on June 23? BUY No 95¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C or below on June 23? BUY No 97¢ $200 1h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June SELL No 99¢ $79 10h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June SELL No 99¢ $2 10h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June SELL No 99¢ $26 10h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June SELL No 99¢ $12 10h
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 22? SELL No 100¢ $121 16h
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 22? BUY No 90¢ $90 18h
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 22? BUY No 90¢ $19 18h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY No 86¢ $86 19h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY No 85¢ $3 19h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY No 85¢ $15 19h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on June 22? SELL No 97¢ $97 19h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 22? SELL No 100¢ $128 20h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on June 22? BUY No 90¢ $45 21h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on June 22? BUY No 90¢ $1 21h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on June 22? BUY No 90¢ $17 21h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on June 22? BUY No 90¢ $9 21h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on June 22? BUY No 90¢ $18 21h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 22? BUY No 97¢ $100 22h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 22? BUY No 90¢ $23 22h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 22? SELL No 100¢ $200 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $429.99 · official $429.99 (match) · 1880 history records