Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T18:32:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
7D 0x7d64…0b24 other 95 markets active 0h ago coverage 9d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
! high turnover
Total PnL +$18 (+1%) realized +$91 · open −$73
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +80% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +39% what you keep after slip
Net edge+39%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate31%19W / 42L
Drawdown51%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day20.4pace
Fees−$40est.
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$207now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$681
7 days+$478
14 days+$778
30 days+$778
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 52% −$27
other 38% +$780
crypto 7% +$32
world 3% −$80
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)+63.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 +63.4% +47.8% 28% 21% +21.7%
≤30d 61 +80.5% +63.3% 31% 26% +21.4%
≤90d 61 +80.5% +63.3% 31% 26% +21.4%
all 61 +80.5% +63.3% 31% 26% +21.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +63.3% 26% +21.4%
10% ← realistic here +47.7% 25% +9.8%
15% +33.4% 25% -0.8%
20% +20.3% 25% -10.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +35% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +80% · $-wt +35% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +36% → late +124% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$95 vs −$24 · ×3.89 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.76 per $1 lost it wins $1.76
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$207
Realized+$91
Unrealized−$73
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses19 / 42
Est. fees paid−$40
Open positions3
Markets (closed)61 / 95
History coverage9d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day20.4
Drawdown51%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 61 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Over 47¢ 26¢ $200 $109 −$91 (-46%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 13¢ $75 $97 +$22 (+29%)
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 3.5 Over 28¢ 8¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-74%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 24 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 3 Egypt? AND Exact Score: Any Other Score Jun 22 $10 +$204 +1979%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 AND Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $61 +$169 +276%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $31 +$93 +303%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 21 $5 −$4 -84%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 8.5 Jun 21 $6 −$6 -97%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 7.5 Jun 21 $11 −$11 -98%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $31 +$35 +116%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $101 +$70 +69%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $81 +$132 +162%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $104 −$10 -10%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $96 −$94 -98%
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 20 $5 −$1 -25%
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $62 −$10 -16%
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 2 Paraguay? Jun 20 $21 +$4 +22%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 20 $20 −$10 -48%
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 2 Paraguay? Jun 20 $10 −$3 -34%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Haiti? Jun 20 $11 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 20 $80 −$3 -4%
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) Jun 19 $31 −$30 -98%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 19 $102 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $15 −$9 -63%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 Korea Republic? AND Exact Score: Czechia 1 - Jun 19 $10 +$218 +2124%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $10 $0 +2%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $10 $0 +4%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 2 South Africa? Jun 18 $10 −$8 -81%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 2 South Africa? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? Jun 18 $100 +$2 +2%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 2 - 2 Colombia? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $41 +$106 +258%
Exact Score: England 1 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: England 2 - 3 Croatia? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $31 −$3 -10%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $19 −$18 -95%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 17 $7 −$7 -97%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $18 −$18 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $82 −$80 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $41 −$40 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $131 −$39 -30%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 +$5 +52%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $21 +$73 +354%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $161 −$104 -64%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $105 −$61 -58%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $50 −$18 -37%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 14¢ $2 16m
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 15¢ $3 16m
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 15¢ $18 16m
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 29¢ $20 1h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 28¢ $31 1h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $203 1h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 AND Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY 4¢ $15 4h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: France (-2.5) AND Will Austria BUY 5¢ $14 4h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 AND Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY 15¢ $51 4h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 3.5 AND Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 BUY 9¢ $10 4h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) AND Spread: France (-2.5) AND Will Jordan win BUY 3¢ $10 5h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY 5¢ $15 8h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY 4¢ $13 9h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? AND BUY 4¢ $13 9h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 83¢ $124 15h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 20¢ $31 16h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 11¢ $16 24h
Spread: Spain (-3.5) SELL Saudi Arabia 1¢ $1 24h
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 6¢ $5 24h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 1¢ $1 24h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 2¢ $1 24h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 6¢ $5 25h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 14¢ $10 25h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 71¢ $66 25h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 91¢ $172 25h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 32¢ $31 26h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 53¢ $101 26h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 AND Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY 26¢ $61 26h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 AND Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a d BUY 1¢ $5 28h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 AND Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY 6¢ $10 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $206.90 · official $351.15 · 194 history records