Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:17:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

7D
0x7d68…4bd3
crypto · 43 markets active 6h ago
4.5score
+$21 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$151 · open −$131
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$295
Realized+$151
Unrealized−$131
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses21 / 17
Open positions5
Markets (closed)38 / 43
History coverage141d
Avg bet$64
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%
Chart Positions 5 History 38 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$21
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Trump out as President before 2027? Yes 17¢ 10¢ $265 $148 −$117 (-44%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes 21¢ 18¢ $100 $87 −$13 (-13%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Yes 53¢ 54¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 81¢ 80¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Yes 48¢ 46¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-3%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Down 4¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Down 3¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - January 26, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Down 29¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - February 9, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Down 3¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $50 +$21 +42%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $100 −$21 -21%
US forces enter Iran by December 31? Apr 07 $128 +$81 +63%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Apr 07 $58 −$1 -3%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March? Mar 26 $298 −$112 -38%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? Mar 06 $282 +$16 +6%
Solana Up or Down - March 4, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Mar 04 $5 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - March 4, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Mar 04 $10 +$17 +168%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Mar 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Mar 03 $0 $0 -100%
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026? Feb 28 $140 +$327 +233%
Solana Up or Down - February 9, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Feb 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 26, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jan 26 $90 −$90 -100%
Solana Up or Down - January 26, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jan 26 $7 −$7 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 26, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jan 26 $90 +$6 +6%
Solana Up or Down - January 25, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jan 25 $90 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 25, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jan 25 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 25, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jan 25 $100 +$36 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 25, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jan 25 $100 +$21 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 25, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jan 25 $100 +$13 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 25, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jan 25 $38 −$35 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 25, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jan 25 $22 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 25, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jan 25 $77 +$19 +25%
Solana Up or Down - January 22, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jan 25 $77 −$77 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 22, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jan 22 $4 +$3 +69%
Solana Up or Down - January 22, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jan 22 $50 +$5 +10%
Solana Up or Down - January 22, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jan 22 $20 +$3 +13%
Solana Up or Down - January 22, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jan 22 $110 +$8 +7%
Solana Up or Down - January 22, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jan 22 $10 +$3 +33%
Solana Up or Down - January 22, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jan 22 $20 −$6 -32%
Solana Up or Down - January 22, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jan 22 $110 +$13 +12%
Solana Up or Down - January 22, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jan 22 $11 +$2 +18%
Solana Up or Down - January 21, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jan 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - January 22, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jan 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - January 22, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jan 22 $2 $0 -2%
Solana Up or Down - January 22, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jan 22 $10 +$21 +208%
Solana Up or Down - January 21, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jan 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 21, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jan 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 46% −$159
finance 21% −$96
world 13% +$395
other 10% −$2
politics 10% −$117
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $20 6h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $20 6h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 53¢ $20 8h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $50 2d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $79 2d
Trump out as President before 2027? BUY Yes 17¢ $265 65d
US forces enter Iran by December 31? SELL Yes 100¢ $209 65d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 4¢ $57 65d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $58 72d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March? SELL Yes 19¢ $58 77d
US forces enter Iran by December 31? BUY Yes 61¢ $128 86d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March? SELL Yes 85¢ $128 91d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March? BUY Yes 66¢ $298 97d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? SELL Yes 72¢ $298 97d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? BUY Yes 68¢ $282 97d
Solana Up or Down - March 4, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET SELL Down 33¢ $5 99d
Solana Up or Down - March 4, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $5 99d
Solana Up or Down - March 4, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET SELL Down 32¢ $27 99d
Solana Up or Down - March 4, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $10 99d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 100d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $0 100d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 21¢ $100 103d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $100 103d
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $140 112d
Solana Up or Down - February 9, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 122d
Solana Up or Down - January 26, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $7 136d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 26, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $90 136d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 26, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $90 136d
Solana Up or Down - January 25, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $90 137d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 25, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $100 137d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-16.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +10.3% -0.2% 50% 50% -9.5%
≤30d 2 +10.3% -0.2% 50% 50% -9.5%
≤90d 5 +8.7% -1.6% 40% 40% -14.2%
all 38 -7.8% -16.6% 55% 37% -3.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.6% 37% -3.6%
10% -24.6% 24% -12.9%
15% -31.9% 18% -21.3%
20% -38.5% 13% -29.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $294.82 · official $294.82 (match) · 197 history records