Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:13:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
7D 0x7d6c…8570 crypto 645 markets active 1h ago coverage 56d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$30 (+1%) realized +$30 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate85%547W / 98L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day12.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$1
14 days+$2
30 days+$41
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 76 +1.2% -8.4% 92% 28% -9.7%
≤30d 273 +3.2% -6.6% 93% 34% -7.2%
≤90d 645 -0.4% -9.9% 85% 48% -9.4%
all 645 -0.4% -9.9% 85% 48% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 48% -9.4%
10% -18.5% 18% -18.0%
15% -26.4% 6% -26.0%
20% -33.6% 2% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
37% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$5 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

56d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$30
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)85%
Wins / losses547 / 98
Open positions0
Markets (closed)645 / 645
History coverage56d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day12.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 645 Trades
no open positions (91 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 18 $7 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 18 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 18 $7 −$7 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 18 $6 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 18 $7 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 17 $7 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 17 $7 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 17 $7 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 17 $7 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 17 $7 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 16 $7 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 15 $7 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 14 $6 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 14 $7 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 14 $6 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 14 $7 −$6 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 14 $6 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 14 $7 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 14 $6 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 13 $7 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 13 $6 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 13 $7 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 13 $7 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 13 $6 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 13 $7 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 13 $7 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 13 $6 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 13 $7 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 13 $6 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 13 $6 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 13 $6 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 13 $7 +$1 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $7 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $7 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $6 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $7 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $7 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $7 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $7 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $5 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $7 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $7 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $7 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $7 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $7 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $6 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $7 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $6 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $7 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $6 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $7 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $6 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $4 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1232 history records