Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T18:07:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7D 0x7d6e…f8eb other 257 markets active 1h ago coverage 148d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$85 (-0%) realized −$85 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%11W / 246L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$225per market
Trades / day9.7pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days−$23
14 days−$34
30 days−$41
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% −$43
sports 27% −$24
politics 10% −$6
culture 6% −$7
economics 6% −$8
crypto 4% −$5
world 3% −$2
tech 1% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 68 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 158 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
all 257 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 70% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

148d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$85
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses11 / 246
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions0
Markets (closed)257 / 257
History coverage148d
Avg bet$225
Trades / day9.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 257 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 26 $648 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $531 −$1 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 26 $52 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $477 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 26 $166 $0 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 26 $373 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 25 $153 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 25 $571 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 25 $186 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $423 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $284 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 25 $245 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 25 $634 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 24 $145 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 24 $285 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 24 $422 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $377 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 24 $276 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 24 $238 $0 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 23 $370 −$1 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $181 $0 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 23 $54 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 23 $229 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $386 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $467 −$1 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 22 $342 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $559 −$1 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 22 $55 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $244 $0 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 21 $298 −$1 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 21 $598 −$1 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 21 $739 −$2 -0%
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 21 $138 −$1 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 20 $222 −$1 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 20 $55 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $456 −$1 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 20 $337 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $414 −$1 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 19 $358 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $611 −$1 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 18 $467 −$1 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $548 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $766 −$1 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $320 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $518 −$1 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 16 $203 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 16 $190 $0 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $450 −$1 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $365 −$1 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $207 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $52 1h
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $52 3h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $52 4h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $52 5h
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $52 7h
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 99¢ $52 9h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $52 10h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $52 11h
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $52 14h
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $53 15h
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $53 17h
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $53 19h
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $53 20h
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $53 22h
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $53 23h
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $53 24h
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 100¢ $53 26h
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $53 27h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $53 29h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $53 30h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $53 33h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $53 35h
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $4 36h
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $49 39h
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $53 40h
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $53 41h
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $53 42h
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $53 45h
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $53 2d
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $53 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1500 history records