Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T06:31:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
7D 0x7d70…ae13 sports 423 markets active 1h ago coverage 100d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$69 (-2%) realized −$84 · open +$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate43%176W / 234L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day5.3pace
Fees−$44est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$317now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$44
7 days−$222
14 days−$182
30 days−$171
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$157
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 365 -9.0% -17.7% 41% 40% -15.9%
≤30d 407 -3.1% -12.4% 43% 41% -14.3%
≤90d 410 -3.3% -12.5% 43% 41% -14.3%
all 410 -3.3% -12.5% 43% 41% -14.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.5% 41% -14.3%
10% -20.9% 32% -22.5%
15% -28.5% 27% -30.0%
20% -35.5% 21% -36.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$5 · ×1.12 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

100d coverage
Net worth$317
Realized−$84
Unrealized+$15
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses176 / 234
Est. fees paid−$44
Open positions13
Markets (closed)410 / 423
History coverage100d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day5.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 410 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
ITF Monastir: Dominika Podhajecka vs Mariia Nozdrachova Dominika Podhajecka 88¢ 88¢ $78 $79 +$0 (+1%)
Counter-Strike: WW Team vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Closed Qualifier Playoffs WW Team 48¢ 47¢ $48 $47 −$1 (-2%)
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Amaru Gaming (BO3) - The International South America Closed Qualifier Playoffs Amaru Gaming 32¢ 100¢ $14 $42 +$29 (+213%)
ITF Tokyo: Renta Tokuda vs Naoki Nakagawa Renta Tokuda 62¢ 56¢ $32 $29 −$3 (-10%)
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Closed Qualifier Playoffs Walczaki 61¢ 56¢ $26 $24 −$2 (-8%)
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nikola Bartunkova Aryna Sabalenka 87¢ 88¢ $22 $22 +$0 (+1%)
ITF Zhengzhou: Junhan Zhang vs Chenting Zhu Chenting Zhu 51¢ 40¢ $26 $21 −$5 (-21%)
Counter-Strike: ALKA vs ODDIK Academy (BO1) - Gamers Club Liga Série A June Group D ALKA 56¢ 50¢ $17 $15 −$2 (-10%)
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies Pittsburgh Pirates 52¢ 56¢ $12 $12 +$1 (+7%)
Dota 2: Enjoy vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs Enjoy 58¢ 60¢ $10 $11 +$0 (+4%)
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs INOX Division (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffs 1WIN 43¢ 44¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+1%)
ITF Zhengzhou: Daria Khomutsianskaya vs Yufei Ren Daria Khomutsianskaya 40¢ 72¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+80%)
ITF Tokyo: Tai Leonard Sach vs Masamichi Imamura Tai Leonard Sach 44¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ITF Taipei: Yuno Kitahara vs Thasaporn Naklo Jun 19 $2 +$3 +188%
ITF Irvine: Patsy Daughters vs Alina Shcherbinina Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Rainbow Six Siege: 100 Thieves vs Shopify Rebellion (BO1) - North Amer Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Valorant: Nightblood Gaming vs QoR (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Jun 19 $15 −$15 -100%
Valorant: M80 vs SaD Esports (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group Jun 19 $9 −$9 -100%
ITF Taipei: Dayeon Back vs Naho Sato Jun 19 $84 +$17 +20%
ITF Maanshan: Alberto Lim vs Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong Jun 19 $4 +$1 +42%
ITF Tokyo: Jake Delaney vs Max Purcell Jun 19 $58 −$57 -99%
Valorant: Fuego vs Contra (BO3) - VCL Latin America North: Regular Sea Jun 19 $10 +$16 +152%
Valorant: 9z Team vs OXEN (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Regular Sea Jun 19 $4 +$1 +42%
ITF Irvine: Karl Kazuma Lee vs Rudy Quan Jun 19 $35 +$24 +67%
Counter-Strike: Hermine Esports Club vs SNITKO Esports (BO3) - ESEA Eu Jun 19 $9 +$6 +70%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America Jun 18 $55 −$6 -12%
ITF Irvine: Vignesh Gogineni vs Bryce Nakashima Jun 18 $21 −$21 -100%
Rainbow Six Siege: M80 vs Cloud9 (BO1) - North America League Stage 1 Jun 18 $7 −$1 -21%
ITF Irvine: Vit Kalina vs Ronit Karki Jun 18 $7 +$12 +163%
Rainbow Six Siege: For Fun Esports vs Outlast (BO1) - North America Le Jun 18 $4 +$1 +42%
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P Jun 18 $20 +$5 +27%
ITF Tulsa: Bruno Kuzuhara vs Gavin Young Jun 18 $9 +$1 +11%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla Jun 18 $52 −$11 -21%
ITF Bolszewo: Nika Hurkacz vs Victoria Bosio Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
ITF Milano: Fausto Tabacco vs Petr Nesterov Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
ITF Tulsa: Andrej Martin vs Luca Pow Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. NC Dinos Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: JiJieHao vs Phantom (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Cl Jun 18 $16 −$16 -100%
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez Jun 18 $13 −$13 -100%
KBO: Kiwoom Heroes vs. Samsung Lions Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffs Jun 18 $16 −$16 -100%
ITF Ystad: Valentina Ivanov vs Isabel Skoog Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Walczaki (BO3) - European Pro League Series 7 P Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
ITF Monastir: Paul Inchauspe vs Cesar Bouchelaghem Jun 18 $23 −$23 -100%
ITF Saarlouis: Yannik Kelm vs Jakub Filip Jun 18 $7 +$1 +11%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - European Pro League Jun 18 $19 +$6 +31%
ITF Milano: Giorgio Tabacco vs Gianmarco Ferrari Jun 18 $2 +$3 +197%
ITF Lourinha: Patrick Schoen vs Thijs Boogaard Jun 18 $30 +$20 +67%
ITF Bolszewo: Briana Szabo vs Marcelina Podlinska Jun 18 $21 −$1 -7%
ITF Haskovo: Selena Janicijevic vs Denislava Glushkova Jun 18 $7 +$3 +38%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs KOLESIE (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P Jun 18 $17 +$11 +62%
KBO: LG Twins vs. Kia Tigers Jun 18 $18 +$7 +42%
ITF Klosters: Alexandre Aubriot vs Sandro Kopp Jun 18 $24 +$6 +25%
ITF Haskovo: Anja Stankovic vs Dalila Spiteri Jun 18 $14 +$10 +76%
ITF Dinard: Elise Renard vs Franziska Sziedat Jun 18 $19 +$6 +29%
ITF Klosters: Elsa Bonelli vs Polina Leykina Jun 18 $22 +$3 +14%
ITF Haskovo: Lia Karatancheva vs Cagla Buyukakcay Jun 18 $17 +$13 +79%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Brazil Jun 18 $4 +$26 +652%
ITF Lourinha: Francisco Rocha vs Fabrizio Andaloro Jun 18 $21 +$4 +20%
ITF Monastir: Gianluca Carlini vs Billy Blaydes Jun 18 $17 +$10 +57%
ITF Monastir: Dominika Podhajecka vs Sarra Attig Jun 18 $22 +$3 +12%
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs Noir Verse (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Cl Jun 18 $22 +$3 +14%
ITF Bourg-En-Bresse: Elijah Sanogo vs Melios Efstathiou Jun 18 $15 +$2 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
ITF Tokyo: Renta Tokuda vs Naoki Nakagawa BUY Renta Tokuda 59¢ $13 47m
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Amaru Gaming (BO3) - The International South A BUY Amaru Gaming 35¢ $12 48m
ITF Tokyo: Renta Tokuda vs Naoki Nakagawa BUY Renta Tokuda 65¢ $20 48m
Dota 2: Enjoy vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qua BUY Enjoy 58¢ $11 50m
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs INOX Division (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla BUY 1WIN 43¢ $2 56m
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs INOX Division (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla BUY 1WIN 43¢ $9 1h
ITF Tokyo: Tai Leonard Sach vs Masamichi Imamura BUY Tai Leonard Sach 44¢ $4 1h
ITF Taipei: Yuno Kitahara vs Thasaporn Naklo BUY Yuno Kitahara 34¢ $2 1h
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Amaru Gaming (BO3) - The International South A BUY Amaru Gaming 21¢ $2 1h
ITF Tokyo: Jake Delaney vs Max Purcell BUY Max Purcell 57¢ $29 1h
ITF Tokyo: Jake Delaney vs Max Purcell BUY Max Purcell 57¢ $29 1h
ITF Monastir: Dominika Podhajecka vs Mariia Nozdrachova BUY Dominika Podhajecka 88¢ $34 1h
ITF Monastir: Dominika Podhajecka vs Mariia Nozdrachova BUY Dominika Podhajecka 88¢ $44 1h
ITF Zhengzhou: Daria Khomutsianskaya vs Yufei Ren BUY Daria Khomutsianskaya 40¢ $2 2h
ITF Zhengzhou: Junhan Zhang vs Chenting Zhu BUY Chenting Zhu 51¢ $26 2h
ITF Maanshan: Alberto Lim vs Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong BUY Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong 70¢ $4 2h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America SELL LGD Gaming 49¢ $49 6h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America BUY LGD Gaming 50¢ $25 6h
Counter-Strike: WW Team vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Epi BUY WW Team 48¢ $24 7h
ITF Irvine: Karl Kazuma Lee vs Rudy Quan BUY Rudy Quan 48¢ $7 7h
Counter-Strike: WW Team vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Epi BUY WW Team 48¢ $24 7h
ITF Taipei: Dayeon Back vs Naho Sato BUY Dayeon Back 83¢ $42 7h
ITF Taipei: Dayeon Back vs Naho Sato BUY Dayeon Back 83¢ $42 8h
Rainbow Six Siege: M80 vs Cloud9 (BO1) - North America League Stage 1 SELL Cloud9 10¢ $2 8h
Rainbow Six Siege: M80 vs Cloud9 (BO1) - North America League Stage 1 SELL Cloud9 11¢ $3 8h
Rainbow Six Siege: M80 vs Cloud9 (BO1) - North America League Stage 1 BUY Cloud9 13¢ $7 8h
ITF Irvine: Karl Kazuma Lee vs Rudy Quan BUY Rudy Quan 63¢ $12 8h
ITF Irvine: Patsy Daughters vs Alina Shcherbinina BUY Patsy Daughters 20¢ $1 9h
ITF Irvine: Karl Kazuma Lee vs Rudy Quan BUY Rudy Quan 63¢ $16 9h
Valorant: Fuego vs Contra (BO3) - VCL Latin America North: Regular Sea BUY Fuego 39¢ $10 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $317.19 · official $313.94 · 892 history records