Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T01:39:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
7D 0x7d71…7682 other 40 markets active 1h ago coverage 128d
RISKYcopy with care Fading edge
Total PnL +$18 (+9%) realized +$9 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +19% what you keep after slip
Net edge+19%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate20%6W / 24L
Drawdown82%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$53now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$21
7 days−$23
14 days−$23
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 29% $0
sports 28% −$3
world 26% +$32
crypto 16% −$30
politics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)+19.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -34.5% -40.8% 15% 15% -29.8%
≤30d 26 +31.1% +18.6% 15% 15% -19.0%
≤90d 26 +31.1% +18.6% 15% 15% -19.0%
all 30 +31.8% +19.2% 20% 20% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +19.2% 20% -10.8%
10% +7.8% 20% -19.3%
15% -2.6% 20% -27.1%
20% -12.2% 20% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +32% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +76% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$3 · ×4.49 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

128d coverage
Net worth$53
Realized+$9
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses6 / 24
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions10
Markets (closed)30 / 40
History coverage128d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown82%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? Yes 30¢ 40¢ $13 $18 +$5 (+36%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Yes 54¢ 55¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+0%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+1%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Yes 51¢ 52¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+1%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+86%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+16%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-15%)
Will Nigel Farage be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-18%)
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? Yes 7¢ 5¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-29%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Yes 56¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Yes 43¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Yes 77¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $3 −$2 -70%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 15 $7 −$1 -9%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 −$3 -50%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Jun 15 $1 $0 -26%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $31 −$30 -96%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$3 -48%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -94%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 +$13 +422%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $24 +$13 +53%
Iran leadership change by May 31? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Lando Norris win the Sprint at the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 13 $3 +$8 +236%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Trump declare war on Iran by February 28, 2026? May 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump declare war on Iran by March 31, 2026? May 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 26, 2026 (ET)? May 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Seahawks vs. Patriots May 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the US strike Iran next? May 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? May 17 $1 +$30 +3025%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 28 $4 +$4 +111%
US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026? Feb 22 $1 −$1 -95%
Will United States win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Win Feb 22 $5 +$9 +185%
Will Sweden win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winter Oly Feb 18 $5 −$3 -58%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $4 35m
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 84¢ $10 45m
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 46m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 55¢ $5 55m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 62¢ $7 56m
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? BUY Yes 33¢ $5 58m
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 23¢ $3 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 21¢ $3 1h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 1h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 1h
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? BUY Yes 28¢ $8 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 54¢ $10 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 63¢ $7 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 37¢ $5 2h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $5 3h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 80¢ $10 4h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 18¢ $1 4h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 44¢ $2 4h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 20¢ $2 4h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 75¢ $21 4h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $3 10h
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 11h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 18¢ $3 25h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 74¢ $21 25h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $3 27h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $3 40h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 21¢ $3 2d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $3 2d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $11 2d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $53.31 · official $53.31 (match) · 81 history records