Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T12:32:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
7D 0x7d72…e809 other 42 markets active 1h ago coverage 274d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate32%13W / 28L
Drawdown24%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 34% $0
world 29% $0
politics 19% $0
sports 10% $0
culture 6% $0
crypto 1% +$1
finance 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 7 +0.9% -8.7% 43% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 7 +0.9% -8.7% 43% 0% -9.3%
all 41 +1.4% -8.2% 32% 5% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.2% 5% -9.3%
10% -17.0% 5% -18.0%
15% -25.0% 0% -25.9%
20% -32.4% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×2.98 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.23 per $1 lost it wins $3.23
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

274d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses13 / 28
Open positions1
Markets (closed)41 / 42
History coverage274d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown24%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 98¢ 98¢ $36 $36 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 23 $33 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 23 $7 $0 -0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $33 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 27 $65 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 26 $33 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 26 $69 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 25 $9 +$1 +6%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 13 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Oct 13 $21 $0 -1%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Oct 13 $50 $0 +0%
Will Wicked: For Good win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Oct 12 $21 $0 +0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 12 $21 $0 -0%
Trump out as President in 2025? Oct 12 $4 $0 +4%
Will Elon Musk be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Oct 11 $17 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in 2025? Oct 11 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 11 $18 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 by December 31, 2025? Oct 11 $3 +$1 +26%
Will the Detroit Lions win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 10 $19 $0 -0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Kazakhstan? Oct 10 $20 $0 +0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 10 $21 $0 -0%
Will the US recognize Palestine in 2025? Oct 09 $15 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 09 $7 $0 -0%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 09 $21 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 07 $2 $0 -3%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 06 $21 $0 +0%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Oct 06 $20 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Oct 06 $3 $0 -11%
Will Trump pardon Daniel Penny in 2025? Oct 05 $7 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in 2025? Oct 05 $16 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Oct 05 $9 $0 +3%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 05 $3 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 01 $28 $0 +1%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 27 $3 $0 +3%
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? Sep 27 $25 $0 -1%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Sep 26 $28 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by September 30? Sep 25 $27 $0 +0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 25 $27 $0 +0%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Sep 25 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? Sep 24 $1 $0 +30%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 24 $28 $0 -0%
Will McLaren be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Sep 24 $27 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $36 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 74¢ $33 14h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 74¢ $29 17h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 74¢ $4 17h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $5 30h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $2 30h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $4 31h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $4 31h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $24 36h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $9 36h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $33 39h
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $16 28d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $16 28d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $33 28d
Iran leadership change by May 31? SELL No 99¢ $33 28d
Iran leadership change by May 31? BUY No 99¢ $33 28d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL No 99¢ $36 28d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab BUY No 98¢ $36 28d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL No 98¢ $33 29d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab BUY No 98¢ $11 29d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab BUY No 98¢ $22 29d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $7 29d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $1 29d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $1 29d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 29d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $4 29d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 29d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $28 30d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $5 30d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $33 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.17 · official $36.17 (match) · 145 history records