Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:19:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7D 0x7d72…ad82 world 45 markets active 3d ago coverage 474d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$11 (-1%) realized −$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate27%12W / 33L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 74% −$2
other 11% −$3
politics 5% −$3
sports 4% −$4
crypto 3% $0
tech 1% $0
culture 1% $0
finance 1% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-14.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.3% -9.8% 25% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 12 -0.2% -9.7% 17% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 12 -0.2% -9.7% 17% 0% -9.7%
all 45 -5.0% -14.0% 27% 2% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.0% 2% -10.6%
10% -22.3% 0% -19.1%
15% -29.8% 0% -26.9%
20% -36.7% 0% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 74% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.24 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

474d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses12 / 33
Open positions0
Markets (closed)45 / 45
History coverage474d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 45 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $42 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $235 +$1 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 15 $91 −$2 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $48 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $43 $0 -1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 08 $17 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $52 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $42 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $12 $0 +2%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 06 $57 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 03 $44 −$1 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 03 $43 $0 +0%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 26 $6 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $130K in July? Aug 10 $5 $0 +4%
Will the Conservative Liberals win the most seats in the 2025 Netherla Jul 25 $5 $0 +0%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% in 2025? Jul 24 $6 $0 -1%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jul 24 $5 $0 -0%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 24 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 24 $5 $0 +0%
Will Manfred Reyes Villa win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Jul 07 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 07 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Jul 07 $5 $0 +0%
Will Mistral have a #1 AI model this year? Jul 07 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 06 $5 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31? Jul 06 $5 $0 +0%
Will Daniel Baluta be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jul 06 $5 $0 +0%
Will 8+ Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 06 $5 $0 +0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jul 05 $5 $0 -0%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jul 05 $5 $0 +0%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jul 05 $5 $0 +1%
Will Chelsea win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jul 03 $1 $0 +6%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 National League Championship? Jul 03 $5 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? Jul 02 $5 $0 -1%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Jul 01 $5 $0 -0%
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2025? Jun 26 $5 $0 +1%
Will Kim Moon-soo win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elect Jun 05 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Rafał Trzaskowski win by 8-12%? Jun 03 $1 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in May? May 18 $6 $0 -7%
Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? May 16 $14 −$5 -37%
Will CDU/CSU and AfD form the next German Government? Mar 27 $14 $0 -1%
Will George Russell win the 2025 Chinese Grand Prix Sprint? Mar 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $77000 on Mar 21? Mar 22 $14 $0 +1%
Will Elena Lasconi win the Romanian presidential election? Mar 20 $14 $0 +0%
Jacksonville State vs. Liberty Mar 20 $14 +$2 +11%
Will Donald Trump say NATO 3+ times during his presser with Starmer on Feb 27 $16 $0 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 73¢ $42 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 73¢ $42 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 77¢ $42 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 77¢ $42 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 86¢ $2 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 86¢ $40 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 88¢ $28 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 88¢ $15 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 92¢ $29 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 92¢ $19 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 92¢ $10 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 91¢ $26 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 91¢ $4 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 94¢ $30 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 55¢ $23 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 55¢ $20 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 55¢ $5 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 55¢ $48 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 84¢ $44 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 85¢ $44 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 95¢ $49 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 96¢ $49 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 17¢ $4 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 17¢ $2 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 17¢ $2 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 95¢ $44 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 93¢ $43 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 91¢ $30 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 91¢ $14 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 89¢ $43 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 140 history records