Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T15:16:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7D 0x7d75…f10f other 46 markets active 2h ago coverage 490d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$13 (-1%) realized −$13 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate36%16W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 32% −$6
world 27% −$1
politics 19% $0
crypto 15% +$1
economics 4% +$1
sports 2% −$8
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.0% -9.5% 17% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 10 -0.2% -9.7% 10% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 10 -0.2% -9.7% 10% 0% -9.8%
all 45 -4.1% -13.2% 36% 0% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.2% 0% -10.9%
10% -21.5% 0% -19.4%
15% -29.1% 0% -27.2%
20% -36.1% 0% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 49% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.21 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

490d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized−$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses16 / 29
Open positions1
Markets (closed)45 / 46
History coverage490d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 45 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? No 92¢ 92¢ $30 $31 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $10 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $30 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 21 $30 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $30 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $30 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $30 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 26 $28 −$1 -2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 26 $34 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 25 $1 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 24 $31 $0 +0%
Will Palmeiras win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 09 $1 $0 +3%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 28 $6 $0 -0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after July 2025 meeting? Jun 24 $35 +$1 +1%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 31 $2 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 150–174 times May 16–23? May 23 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in May? May 21 $12 +$1 +5%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? May 21 $5 $0 -1%
Will Manchester United win the UEFA Europa League? May 21 $9 $0 -1%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? May 20 $5 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the Eastern Conference? May 20 $3 $0 -0%
Will San Marino finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10? May 19 $5 $0 +9%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 19 $6 $0 +6%
Will UCR win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 May 19 $35 $0 -0%
Will federal spending decrease by $500-750b between Q4 2024 and Q2 202 May 18 $35 $0 +0%
Will PRO win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 May 17 $39 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 300–324 times May 9–16? May 17 $42 +$1 +3%
Will annual inflation increase by 2.6% in April? May 12 $6 $0 -1%
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? May 11 $6 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut more than $250b in federal spending in 2025? May 11 $1 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high by June 30? May 11 $2 $0 -7%
Will Australia win Eurovision 2025? May 11 $43 $0 +0%
Will Lakas win the most seats in the House of Representatives in the 2 May 10 $44 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $99000 and $101000 on May 9? May 10 $43 $0 +0%
Will Oprah Winfrey be named in Epstein files? May 10 $5 $0 +0%
Will Tim Stokely buy TikTok before July? May 10 $5 $0 +0%
Will federal spending decrease by $750b-1t between Q4 2024 and Q2 2025 May 09 $39 $0 +0%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? May 09 $5 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60k in May? May 09 $84 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 1,250,000-1,500,000 people? May 08 $41 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on May 31? May 08 $6 $0 -0%
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 World Series? May 08 $6 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after May 2025 meeting? May 08 $2 $0 +2%
Will Trump deport 1,000,000-1,250,000 people? May 08 $2 $0 -2%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem May 07 $42 $0 +0%
North Dakota State vs. South Dakota Mar 04 $8 −$8 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $30 2h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $10 8h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 10h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $8 13h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $22 13h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $8 18h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $22 18h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 75¢ $11 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 75¢ $19 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 75¢ $30 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $30 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $30 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 66¢ $5 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 66¢ $25 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 66¢ $30 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $7 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $22 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $30 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 39¢ $28 28d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 40¢ $28 28d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 40¢ $0 28d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 74¢ $34 28d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 74¢ $34 28d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $1 29d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $1 29d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $31 29d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $31 30d
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 96¢ $6 359d
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after July 2025 meeting? SELL No 100¢ $36 364d
Will Palmeiras win the FIFA Club World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $1 373d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.52 · official $30.52 (match) · 111 history records