Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T06:28:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7D 0x7d75…8b3a sports 237 markets active 2h ago coverage 192d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,571 (-7%) realized −$1,571 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate45%104W / 129L
Whale WR29%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$95per market
Trades / day3.8pace
Fees−$38est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days+$40
14 days+$3
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 86% −$1,350
other 13% −$111
world 0% −$26
crypto 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-15.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 +14.2% +3.3% 59% 47% -6.0%
≤30d 74 -0.9% -10.3% 53% 45% -8.7%
≤90d 83 -1.6% -11.0% 52% 45% -8.7%
all 233 -6.9% -15.7% 45% 35% -15.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.7% 35% -15.6%
10% -23.8% 27% -23.6%
15% -31.2% 21% -31.0%
20% -37.9% 14% -37.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 29% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -5% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$32 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

192d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,571
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses104 / 129
Whale WR (big bets)29%
Est. fees paid−$38
Open positions0
Markets (closed)233 / 237
History coverage192d
Avg bet$95
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 233 Trades
no open positions (42 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $50 +$17 +34%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $40 +$24 +60%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $5 −$5 -99%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $87 −$3 -3%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $114 +$7 +6%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $33 +$8 +23%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $153 +$6 +4%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $22 +$1 +6%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $22 $0 -0%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $17 +$5 +29%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $148 −$52 -35%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $67 +$6 +8%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $50 −$26 -51%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $20 −$5 -23%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $10 −$10 -99%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $17 −$6 -35%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $20 +$15 +73%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $14 +$7 +51%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $28 −$15 -52%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $30 +$8 +27%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 AND Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $6 +$4 +70%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A Jun 17 $6 +$10 +154%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 AND France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $6 +$4 +72%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 AND Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $7 +$6 +83%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $27 +$5 +17%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $20 +$16 +79%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $19 −$3 -18%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 $0 -3%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 AND Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 AND Wi Jun 14 $50 +$20 +40%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $20 −$7 -34%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $5 −$2 -30%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $3 +$5 +168%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $2 −$1 -97%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 +$5 +54%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $40 +$5 +13%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $15 +$6 +41%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $5 −$2 -41%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $4 −$4 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$11 +109%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $59 −$7 -12%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 10 $11 −$11 -99%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $8 +$3 +36%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $9 +$5 +50%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $28 +$3 +9%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $20 −$10 -48%
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $7 +$1 +18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $67 1h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 AND Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 AND Fr BUY 9¢ $10 2h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 74¢ $50 3h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $40 12h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 70¢ $5 12h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 89¢ $45 12h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 92¢ $47 13h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $47 13h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 83¢ $39 14h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 59¢ $39 14h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 59¢ $40 14h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 81¢ $40 14h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 82¢ $41 14h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner SELL FURIA 100¢ $41 15h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 81¢ $33 16h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 82¢ $34 16h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 81¢ $33 24h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $33 28h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 70¢ $23 29h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Vitality 68¢ $24 34h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Vitality 63¢ $22 34h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Vitality 66¢ $22 34h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 65¢ $22 34h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $23 34h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 76¢ $17 36h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL G2 36¢ $17 36h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 61¢ $30 36h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 40¢ $30 37h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 45¢ $35 37h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL G2 35¢ $34 37h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $10.00 · 749 history records