Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T23:33:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7D 0x7d77…cd4f other 39 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$149 (-16%) realized −$147 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +7% what you keep after slip
Net edge+7%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate71%24W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day15.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit41%portable
Net worth$126now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 80% −$156
sports 20% +$28
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)+16.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 +28.5% +16.3% 71% 62% -23.6%
≤30d 34 +28.5% +16.3% 71% 62% -23.6%
≤90d 34 +28.5% +16.3% 71% 62% -23.6%
all 34 +28.5% +16.3% 71% 62% -23.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +16.3% 62% -23.6%
10% +5.2% 47% -30.9%
15% -5.0% 38% -37.6%
20% -14.3% 32% -43.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +29% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +62% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$32 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$126
Realized−$147
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses24 / 10
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions5
Markets (closed)34 / 39
History coverage4d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day15.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit41%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Uruguay leading at halftime? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+0%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 71¢ 70¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Uruguay to score first vs. Cabo Verde? Yes 80¢ 72¢ $30 $27 −$3 (-10%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 20¢ $14 $15 +$1 (+7%)
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Over 60¢ 68¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $20 −$20 -99%
Spain to win the second half? Jun 21 $30 +$9 +31%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 21 $50 +$18 +36%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $4 $0 +12%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $5 $0 +1%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $15 +$3 +18%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $20 −$15 -75%
Japan to win the second half? Jun 21 $10 +$9 +90%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $97 +$3 +3%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $31 +$18 +56%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $50 +$9 +17%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 20 $24 −$24 -99%
Germany to score first vs. Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $13 −$13 -97%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $10 +$6 +62%
Netherlands to score first vs. Sweden? Jun 20 $5 +$3 +59%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 20 $221 −$221 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $20 $0 +1%
Brazil leading at halftime? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $18 +$7 +39%
Brazil to score first vs. Haiti? Jun 20 $18 +$2 +12%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $2 $0 +12%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? AND Morocco to score first vs. Scotla Jun 20 $24 +$26 +109%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $10 +$6 +60%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? AND United States to score first vs. Jun 19 $5 +$17 +341%
Canada to score first vs. Qatar? Jun 19 $10 +$3 +27%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $11 +$3 +29%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $11 −$2 -22%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $8 −$7 -86%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $20 +$17 +84%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$3 -27%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $5 +$5 +97%
England leading at halftime? Jun 17 $5 +$22 +427%
England to score first vs. Croatia? Jun 17 $4 +$2 +59%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $10 $0 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 60¢ $4 1h
Uruguay to score first vs. Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 80¢ $30 1h
Uruguay leading at halftime? BUY Yes 52¢ $41 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 71¢ $40 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $20 4h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 99¢ $5 5h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 16¢ $5 5h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $4 11h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain O/U 1.5 BUY Over 84¢ $15 11h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 61¢ $20 11h
Spain to win the second half? BUY Yes 76¢ $30 11h
Spain leading at halftime? BUY Yes 73¢ $50 12h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 97¢ $97 18h
Japan to win the second half? BUY Yes 52¢ $10 18h
Germany leading at halftime? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 26h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 39¢ $1 27h
Germany to score first vs. Côte d'Ivoire? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 27h
Germany leading at halftime? BUY Yes 51¢ $14 28h
Germany leading at halftime? BUY Yes 52¢ $10 28h
Netherlands to score first vs. Sweden? SELL Yes 100¢ $8 29h
Germany to score first vs. Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 70¢ $13 38h
Netherlands to score first vs. Sweden? BUY Yes 62¢ $5 38h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 61¢ $10 41h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 85¢ $50 41h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $20 41h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 53¢ $20 42h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 51¢ $20 42h
Brazil leading at halftime? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY 72¢ $18 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? AND Morocco to score first vs. Scotla BUY 66¢ $20 2d
Brazil to score first vs. Haiti? BUY Yes 89¢ $18 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $126.16 · official $126.16 (match) · 89 history records