Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T14:58:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
7D 0x7d77…bc86 other 369 markets active 2h ago coverage 235d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$726 (+3%) realized +$793 · open −$67
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR63%break-even
Win rate72%263W / 104L
Drawdown46%max
Avg bet$69per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$372now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$116
7 days+$362
14 days+$310
30 days+$723
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 80% +$1,147
crypto 17% −$166
sports 2% −$137
politics 1% −$203
world 0% +$17
tech 0% −$14
economics 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +63%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +10.2% -0.3% 89% 84% -2.6%
≤30d 49 +12.4% +1.7% 90% 88% -2.4%
≤90d 123 +7.3% -2.9% 83% 82% -4.2%
all 367 -2.8% -12.1% 72% 63% -7.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.1% 63% -7.0%
10% -20.5% 42% -15.9%
15% -28.2% 22% -24.0%
20% -35.2% 12% -31.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$43 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.16 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

235d coverage
Net worth$372
Realized+$793
Unrealized−$67
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses263 / 104
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)367 / 369
History coverage235d
Avg bet$69
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown46%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 367 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 69¢ 68¢ $239 $237 −$2 (-1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 7¢ $200 $134 −$66 (-33%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 93 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $502 +$60 +12%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $272 +$62 +23%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $271 −$270 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $265 +$32 +12%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $201 +$62 +31%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $201 +$62 +31%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $201 +$32 +16%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $201 +$46 +23%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $195 +$70 +36%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $241 +$48 +20%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $242 −$240 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $223 +$88 +40%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $202 +$110 +55%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $190 +$40 +21%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $191 +$28 +14%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $181 +$47 +26%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $171 +$20 +12%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $171 +$29 +17%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $591 +$36 +6%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $232 −$230 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $192 +$105 +55%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $231 −$230 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $226 +$51 +23%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $202 +$97 +48%
Will England win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $201 +$32 +16%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $191 +$33 +17%
Will Thailand win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $201 +$55 +27%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $172 +$37 +21%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $171 +$23 +13%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $171 +$52 +31%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $201 +$40 +20%
Will Finland win on 2026-06-05? Jun 06 $161 +$25 +16%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-04? Jun 05 $101 +$34 +34%
Will Cyprus win on 2026-06-04? Jun 05 $150 +$16 +11%
Will Nigeria win on 2026-06-03? Jun 04 $121 +$41 +34%
Will Romania win on 2026-06-02? Jun 03 $121 +$46 +38%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-01? Jun 02 $100 +$17 +17%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-01? Jun 02 $101 +$20 +20%
Will Kalmar FF win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $101 +$36 +36%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presid May 31 $202 −$200 -99%
Will IK Start win on 2026-05-29? May 30 $131 +$36 +27%
Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-05-28? May 29 $121 +$29 +24%
Will CA Rosario Central win on 2026-05-27? May 28 $121 +$37 +31%
Will CD Tolima win on 2026-05-26? May 27 $101 +$36 +36%
Will Aalesunds FK win on 2026-05-25? May 26 $100 +$15 +14%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $101 +$29 +29%
Will Real Oviedo win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $100 +$13 +13%
Will Getafe CF vs. CA Osasuna end in a draw? May 24 $101 +$50 +50%
Will OGC Nice win on 2026-05-22? May 23 $100 +$16 +16%
Will Al Nassr Saudi Club win on 2026-05-21? May 22 $100 +$16 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $241 1h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 89¢ $502 11h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 87¢ $271 22h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 81¢ $272 22h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $265 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 76¢ $201 3d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 81¢ $201 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 76¢ $201 3d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 86¢ $201 3d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 73¢ $195 3d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 83¢ $241 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $242 4d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $223 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $202 4d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 87¢ $191 4d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $190 5d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 79¢ $181 5d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 89¢ $171 5d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 85¢ $171 6d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $591 7d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 71¢ $232 7d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $192 7d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $231 8d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 81¢ $226 8d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 67¢ $202 10d
Will England win on 2026-06-10? BUY Yes 86¢ $201 11d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 85¢ $191 11d
Will Thailand win on 2026-06-09? BUY No 78¢ $201 12d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-07? BUY Yes 82¢ $171 14d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-07? BUY Yes 82¢ $1 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $371.58 · official $371.58 (match) · 817 history records