Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T09:00:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7D 0x7d77…27c0 world 36 markets active 1h ago coverage 254d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$15 (-2%) realized −$15 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate33%12W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$12
14 days−$14
30 days−$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 58% −$14
politics 21% $0
other 11% −$2
sports 7% $0
tech 2% $0
crypto 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -3.2% -12.4% 30% 0% -12.4%
≤30d 11 -3.0% -12.3% 27% 0% -12.1%
≤90d 11 -3.0% -12.3% 27% 0% -12.1%
all 36 -1.5% -10.9% 33% 0% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 0% -11.2%
10% -19.4% 0% -19.7%
15% -27.2% 0% -27.4%
20% -34.3% 0% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.12 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

254d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses12 / 24
Open positions0
Markets (closed)36 / 36
History coverage254d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 36 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $63 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $5 $0 -5%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $10 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 18 $46 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $3 $0 -0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $40 −$7 -17%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $23 −$1 -3%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 13 $63 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 13 $66 +$1 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $68 −$5 -7%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 08 $100 −$2 -2%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 16 $11 $0 +4%
Will Charlie Kirk be the #1 searched person on Google this year? Dec 14 $14 $0 +2%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 24 $3 $0 -3%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 24 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 23 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall in 2025? Oct 19 $17 $0 +0%
Will Evelyn Matthei win the Chilean presidential election? Oct 19 $8 $0 +6%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2025? Oct 18 $6 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 18 $19 $0 +0%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Oct 18 $5 $0 +0%
Will Vlad Gheorghe be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Oct 18 $18 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $135k in October? Oct 17 $8 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by October 31? Oct 17 $19 $0 +0%
Will Yuichiro Tamaki be the next Prime Minister of Japan? Oct 17 $8 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon George Santos in 2025? Oct 17 $19 $0 -1%
Will Gabriela Firea be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Oct 13 $16 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 7 to October 14, 2025? Oct 13 $21 −$1 -5%
Will Brian Rast win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship? Oct 12 $22 −$1 -5%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Oct 12 $2 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 12 $4 $0 -1%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in China? Oct 11 $22 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 11 $24 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried in 2025? Oct 10 $1 $0 -19%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 10 $25 $0 -0%
Will Napoli win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 08 $24 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $38 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $28 3h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $11 3h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 19¢ $5 9h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 20¢ $5 11h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $4 12h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $3 19h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $3 19h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 24h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $46 30h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $37 31h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $9 31h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 38h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 38h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 40h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 40h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 40h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $14 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $11 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $25 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 21¢ $33 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 25¢ $1 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 25¢ $39 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 29¢ $9 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 29¢ $13 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 30¢ $23 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $63 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $63 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 84¢ $5 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 85¢ $5 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 121 history records