Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T19:26:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
7D 0x7d78…ffa6 other 177 markets active 1h ago coverage 368d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,811 (+2%) realized +$1,969 · open −$158
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate31%50W / 113L
Whale WR59%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$490per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$208est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$1,793now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,320
7 days+$1,655
14 days+$1,342
30 days+$964
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 61% −$722
world 12% +$1,673
other 11% +$1,084
sports 11% −$704
crypto 3% +$175
tech 1% −$771
finance 1% +$144
culture 0% +$329
politics 0% −$70
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-27.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -19.0% -26.7% 36% 32% +6.0%
≤30d 38 -28.2% -35.0% 29% 26% -1.3%
≤90d 153 -24.4% -31.6% 27% 25% -7.5%
all 163 -19.8% -27.4% 31% 28% -8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.4% 28% -8.0%
10% -34.4% 27% -16.8%
15% -40.7% 26% -24.8%
20% -46.5% 23% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 59% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -22% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$276 vs −$111 · ×2.49 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

368d coverage
Net worth$1,793
Realized+$1,969
Unrealized−$158
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses50 / 113
Whale WR (big bets)59%
Est. fees paid−$208
Open positions14
Markets (closed)163 / 177
History coverage368d
Avg bet$490
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 163 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Yes 46¢ 46¢ $460 $465 +$5 (+1%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $260 $250 −$10 (-4%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 27¢ 22¢ $270 $215 −$55 (-20%)
StandX FDV above $200M one day after launch? Yes 34¢ 36¢ $170 $180 +$10 (+6%)
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 6.5 Over 2¢ 5¢ $60 $146 +$86 (+143%)
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 Over 13¢ 14¢ $130 $135 +$5 (+4%)
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 5.5 Over 6¢ 6¢ $110 $120 +$10 (+9%)
o1 FDV above $100M one day after launch? No 19¢ 16¢ $85 $75 −$10 (-11%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Yes 9¢ 6¢ $102 $74 −$28 (-28%)
Will LeBron James retire before next NBA season? Yes 12¢ 11¢ $60 $56 −$3 (-6%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $49 $52 +$2 (+5%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 14¢ 4¢ $68 $19 −$49 (-72%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $76 $6 −$70 (-92%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $51 $1 −$51 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 50 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $377 −$24 -6%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $832 +$374 +45%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $754 −$588 -78%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $6 −$6 -98%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $777 +$785 +101%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $661 −$155 -23%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $855 −$840 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $1,187 +$63 +5%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $371 +$323 +87%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 14 $678 +$790 +116%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $538 +$1,068 +199%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $1,077 −$549 -51%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 14 $100 −$97 -97%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $80 −$80 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $80 −$79 -98%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $126 −$126 -100%
Will Hyperliquid reach $80 by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $190 +$68 +36%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $106 −$91 -85%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $477 +$523 +109%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 13 $131 −$30 -23%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 13 $49 −$46 -94%
SBF released from custody in 2026? Jun 12 $98 −$35 -36%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Jun 12 $136 −$113 -83%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $508 +$492 +97%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? Jun 11 $45 −$45 -100%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $332 −$20 -6%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 11 $246 +$132 +54%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 06 $185 −$93 -50%
GPT-5.6 released by June 8, 2026? Jun 02 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 02 $110 −$110 -100%
GPT-5.6 released by June 5, 2026? Jun 01 $60 −$60 -100%
Variational FDV above $300M one day after launch? Jun 01 $110 +$177 +161%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? May 29 $230 −$72 -31%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? May 29 $165 −$30 -18%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? May 29 $45 −$44 -97%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on May 26 $382 −$380 -100%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31? May 24 $29 −$29 -100%
Solstice FDV above $200M one day after launch? May 08 $140 −$140 -100%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 08 $33 −$32 -97%
Lakers vs. Thunder May 08 $103 −$100 -98%
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? May 06 $25 −$25 -100%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? May 06 $81 −$81 -100%
Billions FDV above $500M one day after launch? May 05 $47 −$45 -96%
Billions FDV above $300M one day after launch? May 04 $168 +$338 +201%
Billions FDV above $200M one day after launch? May 04 $93 +$171 +184%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on May May 02 $300 −$292 -97%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 01 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 01 $80 −$80 -100%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? Apr 30 $230 −$133 -58%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 2¢ $0 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 2¢ $8 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 2¢ $53 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 6¢ $113 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 13¢ $133 1h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) SELL Belgium 36¢ $353 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 4¢ $14 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 4¢ $8 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 4¢ $21 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 4¢ $6 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 4¢ $111 1h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) SELL Cabo Verde 75¢ $268 1h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) SELL Cabo Verde 75¢ $938 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 20¢ $31 2h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 20¢ $5 2h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Cabo Verde 51¢ $776 2h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Cabo Verde 51¢ $56 2h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 5¢ $15 2h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 5¢ $12 2h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 2h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 34¢ $15 3h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 34¢ $100 3h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 34¢ $2 3h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 2¢ $47 4h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 37¢ $377 4h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 37¢ $377 4h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 22¢ $6 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,793.18 · official $1,793.18 (match) · 1036 history records