Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:21:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
7D 0x7d7d…a981 other 16 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$16 (+20%) realized +$10 · open +$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +41% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +22% what you keep after slip
Net edge+22%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate53%8W / 7L
Drawdown43%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day7.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit31%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 84% +$14
sports 10% +$11
world 5% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)+27.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +40.7% +27.3% 53% 53% +19.4%
≤30d 15 +40.7% +27.3% 53% 53% +19.4%
≤90d 15 +40.7% +27.3% 53% 53% +19.4%
all 15 +40.7% +27.3% 53% 53% +19.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +27.3% 53% +19.4%
10% +15.1% 53% +8.0%
15% +4.0% 47% -2.4%
20% -6.2% 47% -12.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 52% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +32% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +41% · $-wt +32% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +44% → late +38% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$3 · ×1.55 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.77 per $1 lost it wins $1.77
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized+$10
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses8 / 7
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)15 / 16
History coverage4d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day7.8
Drawdown43%
Kalshi-fit31%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 92¢ $30 $36 +$6 (+19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 3 Jordan? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -90%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 2 Jordan? Jun 17 $1 +$2 +179%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 +$5 +53%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $5 +$6 +119%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 +$3 +339%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$2 +191%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$12 +237%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 +$4 +124%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -72%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 $0 +29%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $30 1h
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 3 Jordan? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 11h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 2 Jordan? SELL Yes 10¢ $3 11h
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 3 Jordan? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 11h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 2 Jordan? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 14h
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 3 Jordan? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 14h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 98¢ $16 14h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 83¢ $11 14h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 37¢ $5 16h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $10 16h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 40h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $4 40h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $2 47h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 47h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $3 47h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 65¢ $1 47h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 17¢ $3 2d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $17 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 2d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 2d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 42¢ $7 3d
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 3d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 18¢ $3 3d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 3d
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 73¢ $1 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 55¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.65 · official $35.65 (match) · 30 history records