Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T19:18:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7D 0x7d7f…7385 other 235 markets active 2h ago coverage 130d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$64 (-0%) realized −$64 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate6%13W / 222L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$222per market
Trades / day9.9pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$19
14 days−$30
30 days−$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% −$39
sports 24% −$16
politics 7% −$6
crypto 5% −$2
culture 5% −$3
economics 5% −$5
world 3% −$4
tech 1% $0
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 68 -0.2% -9.7% 1% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 175 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
all 235 -0.1% -9.7% 6% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 56% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.19 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.07 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

130d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$64
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses13 / 222
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)235 / 235
History coverage130d
Avg bet$222
Trades / day9.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 235 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 20 $118 $0 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 20 $154 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 20 $423 −$1 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 20 $390 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $241 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 19 $248 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 19 $157 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 19 $206 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 19 $723 −$1 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 19 $511 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $732 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 18 $376 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $135 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $810 −$1 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 18 $184 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 18 $440 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $113 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 17 $562 −$2 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $443 −$1 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $314 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $447 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $354 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $283 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $253 −$1 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $185 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $481 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $633 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $188 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $172 $0 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $189 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $509 −$1 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $393 −$1 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $316 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $117 $0 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 13 $499 −$1 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 13 $341 −$1 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 12 $453 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $850 −$1 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 11 $273 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $382 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $432 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $379 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $148 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $487 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $216 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $753 −$1 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $184 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $552 −$1 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $152 +$1 +0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $239 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $54 1h
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $54 3h
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $54 10h
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $54 12h
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? SELL No 100¢ $54 13h
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? BUY No 100¢ $54 14h
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $54 16h
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $54 17h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $54 20h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $54 22h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $54 22h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $54 23h
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $54 25h
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $54 27h
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $54 31h
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $54 33h
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $54 35h
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $54 36h
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $54 40h
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $55 42h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $55 44h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $55 46h
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $55 47h
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $55 2d
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $55 2d
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $55 2d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $55 2d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $55 2d
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $55 2d
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $55 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1344 history records