Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T22:53:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7D 0x7d82…244d sports 89 markets active 0h ago coverage 20d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$127 (-10%) realized −$141 · open +$14
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate37%32W / 54L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day9.6pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$159now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$138
7 days−$130
14 days−$117
30 days−$128
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 65% −$164
other 35% +$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-28.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 -39.9% -45.6% 31% 17% -28.0%
≤30d 86 -21.3% -28.8% 37% 28% -20.4%
≤90d 86 -21.3% -28.8% 37% 28% -20.4%
all 86 -21.3% -28.8% 37% 28% -20.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.8% 28% -20.4%
10% -35.6% 23% -28.0%
15% -41.8% 20% -34.9%
20% -47.5% 15% -41.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -37% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$6 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$159
Realized−$141
Unrealized+$14
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses32 / 54
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions2
Markets (closed)86 / 89
History coverage20d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day9.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 86 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Panama vs. England end in a draw? No 90¢ 100¢ $117 $130 +$13 (+11%)
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 2 England? Yes 71¢ 74¢ $28 $29 +$1 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 26 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 27 $14 −$2 -17%
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $81 +$4 +5%
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 27 $143 −$137 -96%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5 Jun 27 $8 −$1 -17%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $8 −$1 -19%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $81 +$19 +23%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $25 −$10 -38%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $12 +$1 +8%
Set Handicap: Gaston (-1.5) vs Echargui (+1.5) Jun 25 $0 $0 -100%
Hugo Gaston vs. Moez Echargui: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $0 $0 -100%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 Jun 24 $0 $0 -100%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 24 $0 $0 -100%
Game Handicap: VSN (-1.5) vs Power Rangers (+1.5) Jun 24 $7 −$5 -64%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $12 −$12 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $7 −$2 -34%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $4 $0 -9%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $87 +$18 +21%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $0 $0 -94%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $5 −$3 -50%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $1 −$1 -93%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $0 $0 +43%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $38 +$2 +4%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $43 +$6 +15%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -83%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $4 −$2 -59%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $4 −$2 -50%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 1.5 Corners Jun 21 $4 −$3 -71%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $5 $0 -2%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $0 $0 -100%
Exact Score: Tunisia 3 - 2 Japan? Jun 21 $14 +$6 +39%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $7 +$3 +49%
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 3 Japan? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $4 $0 +3%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $8 $0 +3%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $77 +$2 +2%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $7 +$3 +54%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $59 −$58 -98%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $6 $0 -5%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $92 +$48 +52%
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 20 $8 −$1 -7%
Kenan Yıldız: 5+ shots Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $4 +$6 +138%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 2 Australia? Jun 19 $3 +$2 +92%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $3 −$2 -59%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $2 $0 +15%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $2 $0 +10%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $14 +$6 +47%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 18 $2 −$2 -79%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 2 England? BUY Yes 71¢ $16 3m
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 2 England? BUY Yes 71¢ $12 3m
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL No 60¢ $12 18m
Will England win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 85¢ $85 32m
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 81¢ $26 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 81¢ $6 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 81¢ $9 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 81¢ $40 1h
Will Panama vs. England end in a draw? BUY No 90¢ $117 2h
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY No 71¢ $14 2h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes $6 17h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 90¢ $120 17h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 75¢ $22 18h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 34¢ $7 18h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 32¢ $6 18h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 40¢ $8 19h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 38¢ $8 19h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 0.5 AND Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 AND BUY 24¢ $6 19h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY No 79¢ $32 2d
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY No 83¢ $50 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 32¢ $16 2d
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 6.5 Total Corners SELL Over 65¢ $13 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 46¢ $9 2d
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 60¢ $12 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 54¢ $16 2d
Set Handicap: Gaston (-1.5) vs Echargui (+1.5) BUY Echargui $0 2d
Hugo Gaston vs. Moez Echargui: Total Sets O/U 3.5 BUY Under 3.5 $0 2d
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 BUY Under $0 3d
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 BUY Under $0 3d
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Under $0 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $159.21 · official $159.21 (match) · 210 history records