Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T21:23:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
7D 0x7d84…f2e3 other 103 markets active 2h ago coverage 616d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$7 (+0%) realized +$8 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate93%95W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$514per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$99now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 96% −$49
other 2% $0
politics 1% $0
tech 1% +$1
crypto 0% +$7
culture 0% +$2
sports 0% +$44
finance 0% +$1
world 0% +$1
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-6.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.5% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 1 +0.5% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.1%
≤90d 3 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
all 102 +3.0% -6.8% 93% 13% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.8% 13% -9.5%
10% -15.7% 10% -18.2%
15% -23.9% 5% -26.1%
20% -31.3% 4% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 50% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$13 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

616d coverage
Net worth$99
Realized+$8
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses95 / 7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)102 / 103
History coverage616d
Avg bet$514
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 102 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-30? No 92¢ 92¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May? Jun 27 $104 +$1 +0%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close above $1.00 end of April? May 24 $105 $0 +0%
Will Tesla be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on Apr 20 $105 $0 +0%
Will Opendoor reach $11.50 in February? Mar 14 $10 $0 +0%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $160 by end of February? Mar 14 $10 $0 +1%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $130 end of February? Mar 14 $10 $0 +0%
Will Netflix reach $140 in February? Mar 14 $18 $0 +1%
Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market ca Mar 14 $19 $0 +0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of February? Mar 14 $19 $0 +2%
Will the Bank of Korea increase the base rate after the February Meeti Mar 14 $20 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $585 end of January? Feb 14 $11 $0 +0%
Will Netflix (NFLX) close above $40 end of January? Feb 14 $13 $0 +0%
Will Silver (SI) settle over $40 on the final trading day of January 2 Feb 14 $15 $0 +1%
Will Opendoor reach $11.50 in January? Feb 14 $17 $0 +0%
Will Gold (GC) settle over $7,000 on the final trading day of January Feb 14 $21 $0 +0%
Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $170 end of January? Feb 14 $27 $0 +0%
Nothing Ever Happens: Nuclear Edition Jan 08 $13 $0 +1%
Congress authorizes military force against Iran in 2025? Jan 08 $18 $0 +0%
Will Israel annex West Bank territory in 2025? Jan 08 $22 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31? Jan 08 $24 $0 +1%
Will Macron call a referendum by December 31? Jan 08 $27 $0 +0%
Will Frans Timmermans become the next Prime Minister of the Netherland Dec 23 $42 $0 -0%
Spread: RC Celta de Vigo (-1.5) Dec 23 $11 +$2 +20%
Will Real Oviedo win on 2025-12-20? Dec 23 $11 +$4 +37%
Real Oviedo vs. RC Celta de Vigo: O/U 3.5 Dec 23 $30 +$7 +24%
Will Real Oviedo vs. RC Celta de Vigo end in a draw? Dec 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2025-12-20? Dec 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Deportivo Toluca FC vs. CF Monterrey end in a draw? Dec 15 $17 +$4 +24%
Will CF Cruz Azul win on 2025-12-06? Dec 15 $16 +$4 +25%
Will CF Monterrey win on 2025-12-06? Dec 15 $17 +$4 +24%
Will Deportivo Toluca FC win on 2025-12-06? Dec 15 $16 +$10 +61%
Will Tigres de la UANL vs. CF Cruz Azul end in a draw? Dec 15 $16 +$40 +245%
Will Tigres de la UANL win on 2025-12-06? Dec 05 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Microsoft reach $638 in November? Dec 05 $27 $0 +1%
Will Rocket Lab reach $108 in November? Dec 05 $35 $0 +0%
Will Tesla reach $615 in November? Dec 05 $58 $0 +0%
Will Airbnb reach $168 in November? Dec 05 $104 $0 +0%
Will the Bank of Brazil raise the Selic rate after November 2025 meeti Nov 21 $27 $0 +1%
Will Solana reach $250 in October? Nov 21 $112 $0 +0%
Will Enoch Chihana win the 2025 Malawi presidential election? Oct 30 $40 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 14 $136 +$1 +1%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after July 2025 meeting? Aug 13 $117 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Jul 15 $121 $0 +0%
Will Finland be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2025 Grand Final? Jun 12 $111 $0 +0%
Will another party win the second most seats in the next Canadian elec May 04 $121 $0 +0%
Bybit insolvent before April? Apr 02 $120 +$1 +1%
Will Isabella Rossellini win Best Supporting Actress at the 2025 Oscar Mar 20 $118 +$2 +2%
Will Holly Cairns be the next Prime Minister of Ireland? Feb 13 $7 $0 +0%
OG Shoots vs. Easy Feb 13 $8 $0 -2%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2025 meeting? Feb 13 $102 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-30? BUY No 92¢ $100 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May? BUY No 99¢ $104 33d
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close above $1.00 end of April? BUY Yes 100¢ $105 68d
Will Tesla be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on BUY No 100¢ $105 105d
Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market ca BUY No 100¢ $19 133d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $130 end of February? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 133d
Will Netflix reach $140 in February? BUY No 99¢ $18 133d
Will Opendoor reach $11.50 in February? BUY No 100¢ $10 133d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of February? BUY No 98¢ $19 133d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $160 by end of February? BUY No 99¢ $10 133d
Will the Bank of Korea increase the base rate after the February Meeti BUY No 100¢ $20 133d
Will Netflix (NFLX) close above $40 end of January? BUY Yes 100¢ $13 169d
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $585 end of January? BUY No 100¢ $11 169d
Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $170 end of January? BUY Yes 100¢ $27 169d
Will Opendoor reach $11.50 in January? BUY No 100¢ $17 169d
Will Gold (GC) settle over $7,000 on the final trading day of January BUY No 100¢ $21 169d
Will Silver (SI) settle over $40 on the final trading day of January 2 BUY Yes 99¢ $15 169d
Will Macron call a referendum by December 31? BUY No 100¢ $27 186d
Congress authorizes military force against Iran in 2025? BUY No 100¢ $18 186d
Nothing Ever Happens: Nuclear Edition BUY Yes 99¢ $13 186d
Will Israel annex West Bank territory in 2025? BUY No 100¢ $22 186d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31? BUY No 99¢ $24 186d
Will Frans Timmermans become the next Prime Minister of the Netherland SELL No 100¢ $42 186d
Real Oviedo vs. RC Celta de Vigo: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 81¢ $30 194d
Spread: RC Celta de Vigo (-1.5) BUY Real Oviedo 83¢ $11 194d
Will Real Oviedo win on 2025-12-20? BUY No 73¢ $11 194d
Will Real Oviedo vs. RC Celta de Vigo end in a draw? BUY No 74¢ $11 194d
Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2025-12-20? BUY Yes 46¢ $11 194d
Will CF Cruz Azul win on 2025-12-06? BUY No 80¢ $16 204d
Will Tigres de la UANL win on 2025-12-06? BUY Yes 52¢ $16 204d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $99.46 · official $99.46 (match) · 237 history records