Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T00:27:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
7D 0x7d85…d337 other 11 markets active 2h ago coverage 590d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$54 (-5%) realized −$60 · open +$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -49% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -54% what you keep after slip
Net edge-54%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%3W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$97per market
Trades / day0.0pace
Kalshi-fit18%portable
Net worth$54now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$45
7 days−$59
14 days−$59
30 days−$59
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 46% +$354
other 42% −$336
sports 12% −$125
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-54.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -28.7% -35.5% 50% 50% -56.5%
≤30d 4 -28.7% -35.5% 50% 50% -56.5%
≤90d 4 -28.7% -35.5% 50% 50% -56.5%
all 9 -49.2% -54.1% 33% 33% -19.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -54.1% 33% -19.6%
10% -58.5% 33% -27.3%
15% -62.5% 33% -34.3%
20% -66.2% 11% -40.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 96% · top 2 98% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -52% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -49% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$123 vs −$81 · ×1.53 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

590d coverage
Net worth$54
Realized−$60
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses3 / 6
Open positions2
Markets (closed)9 / 11
History coverage590d
Avg bet$97
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit18%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 28¢ 42¢ $25 $37 +$12 (+48%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 63¢ 46¢ $23 $17 −$6 (-28%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $55 −$53 -97%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $20 +$8 +42%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $18 +$8 +44%
Will Spain beat Portugal? Jun 08 $80 −$80 -100%
Will Nico Williams score a goal in the 2025 UEFA Nations League Final? Jun 08 $80 −$80 -100%
Will Jake Paul vs. Mike Tyson have no official winner? Nov 16 $125 −$125 -100%
Will Mike Tyson win his boxing match against Jake Paul? Nov 16 $122 −$122 -100%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 06 $493 +$354 +72%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 1¢ $3 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 1¢ $51 1h
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 63¢ $23 11d
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 28¢ $26 11d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 67¢ $22 11d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $20 11d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $18 11d
Will Spain beat Portugal? BUY Yes 53¢ $80 375d
Will Nico Williams score a goal in the 2025 UEFA Nations League Final? BUY Yes 27¢ $80 375d
Will Jake Paul vs. Mike Tyson have no official winner? BUY Yes 11¢ $125 582d
Will Mike Tyson win his boxing match against Jake Paul? BUY Yes 27¢ $122 582d
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 100¢ $847 589d
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 58¢ $493 590d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $53.66 · official $53.66 (match) · 18 history records