Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T20:20:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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7D 0x7d85…def1 crypto 1055 markets active 0h ago coverage 118d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 117d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,564 (-3%) realized −$1,564 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate84%892W / 168L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day15.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$597
7 days−$594
14 days−$633
30 days−$632
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$1,017
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 -15.6% -23.6% 81% 0% -42.5%
≤30d 72 -9.3% -18.0% 86% 0% -31.5%
≤90d 678 -1.6% -11.0% 85% 12% -12.7%
all 1060 -1.8% -11.1% 84% 12% -12.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 12% -12.6%
10% -19.6% 4% -21.0%
15% -27.4% 2% -28.6%
20% -34.5% 1% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$19 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

118d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized−$1,564
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)84%
Wins / losses892 / 168
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1060 / 1055
History coverage118d ⚠
Avg bet$44
Trades / day15.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1060 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Up 99¢ 98¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 44 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 25 $214 −$214 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 25 $110 −$110 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-02-12? Jun 25 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 25 $154 −$154 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 25 $75 −$75 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 25 $37 −$37 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 25 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 25 $39 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 25 $39 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 25 $39 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 25 $38 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 25 $37 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 25 $74 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 24 $36 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 24 $36 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 24 $36 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 24 $35 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 24 $33 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 24 $33 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 24 $32 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 24 $31 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 24 $31 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 24 $31 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 24 $31 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 24 $31 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 24 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 24 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 24 $30 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 22 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 22 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 22 $29 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 22 $29 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 22 $29 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 22 $28 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 22 $28 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 22 $27 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 18 $27 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 18 $26 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 18 $26 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 18 $25 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 18 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 18 $50 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 18 $25 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 18 $24 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 18 $36 −$12 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 18 $25 −$10 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 18 $24 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 18 $22 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 18 $22 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 16 $33 −$33 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $40 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $40 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $39 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $39 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $39 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $39 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $39 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $38 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $37 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $37 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $37 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $37 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $36 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $36 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $36 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $36 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $36 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $36 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $35 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $33 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $33 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $32 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $31 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $31 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $31 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $31 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $31 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $31 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $30 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $30 35h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.00 · official $20.91 · 3500 history records