Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:58:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7D 0x7d85…559d crypto 82 markets active 0h ago coverage 9d
BOTnot copyable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (72 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$465 (+2%) realized +$595 · open −$130
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate19%15W / 66L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$319per market
Trades / day71.6pace
Fees−$103est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$398
7 days−$528
14 days−$651
30 days−$651
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 47% −$369
crypto 28% −$234
other 26% −$177
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (72 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 +12.3% +1.6% 22% 15% -12.8%
≤30d 81 -0.6% -10.1% 19% 14% -12.5%
≤90d 81 -0.6% -10.1% 19% 14% -12.5%
all 81 -0.6% -10.1% 19% 14% -12.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover71.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.1% 14% -12.5%
10% ← realistic here -18.7% 5% -20.9%
15% -26.5% 2% -28.5%
20% -33.7% 1% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -20% → late +19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
0.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$112 vs −$78 · ×1.44 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized+$595
Unrealized−$130
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses15 / 66
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$103
Open positions1
Markets (closed)81 / 82
History coverage9d
Avg bet$319
Trades / day71.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 81 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? No 50¢ 0¢ $131 $0 −$130 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 27 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $758 +$222 +29%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $263 +$54 +20%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $743 −$308 -41%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $477 +$31 +7%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $978 +$146 +15%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $1,693 −$200 -12%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $296 −$81 -28%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $301 −$150 -50%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $254 −$17 -7%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $480 −$94 -20%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $520 −$207 -40%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $548 +$66 +12%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1,143 +$120 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5PM ET Jun 12 $100 −$1 -1%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 12 $512 −$31 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1PM ET Jun 12 $306 −$74 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9PM ET Jun 12 $248 −$9 -4%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 12 $168 −$36 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4AM ET Jun 12 $119 −$1 -1%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $3,247 +$716 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8PM ET Jun 11 $100 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6PM ET Jun 10 $129 −$15 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3PM ET Jun 10 $100 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2PM ET Jun 10 $110 −$5 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10AM ET Jun 10 $200 +$81 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9AM ET Jun 10 $100 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 8AM ET Jun 10 $100 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 6AM ET Jun 10 $100 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5AM ET Jun 10 $200 −$50 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4AM ET Jun 10 $125 −$12 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3AM ET Jun 10 $100 $0 +0%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 10 $2,730 −$520 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8PM ET Jun 09 $100 $0 +0%
Will Mauritania win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $100 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5PM ET Jun 08 $200 −$50 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1PM ET Jun 08 $100 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 9? Jun 08 $100 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10AM ET Jun 08 $200 +$32 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11AM ET Jun 08 $100 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 9AM ET Jun 08 $200 −$50 -25%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 8AM ET Jun 08 $100 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7AM ET Jun 08 $132 −$16 -12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 6AM ET Jun 08 $100 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3AM ET Jun 08 $100 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1AM ET Jun 08 $100 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11PM ET Jun 08 $239 −$69 -29%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 8PM ET Jun 08 $100 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 7PM ET Jun 07 $100 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6PM ET Jun 07 $188 −$44 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5PM ET Jun 07 $100 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 97¢ $175 24m
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 97¢ $194 25m
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 95¢ $11 35m
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 95¢ $190 35m
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 5¢ $6 37m
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 5¢ $10 37m
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 5¢ $10 37m
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 93¢ $30 38m
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 24¢ $0 39m
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 25¢ $4 42m
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 25¢ $0 42m
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 75¢ $2 44m
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 74¢ $17 45m
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 75¢ $149 46m
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 75¢ $67 46m
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 24¢ $3 47m
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 24¢ $2 47m
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 24¢ $4 49m
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 76¢ $76 49m
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 75¢ $99 51m
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 75¢ $2 55m
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 23¢ $21 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 23¢ $2 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 23¢ $3 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 23¢ $1 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 23¢ $5 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 23¢ $1 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 23¢ $27 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 23¢ $29 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 23¢ $0 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.32 · official $0.13 · 1106 history records