Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:02:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7D 0x7d8c…5822 other 391 markets active 0h ago coverage 5d ⚠
BOTnot copyable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 4d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (712 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$2,442 (+15%) realized +$2,442 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate31%227W / 500L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day711.6pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$116now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% −$983
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (712 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-23.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 727 -15.1% -23.2% 31% 31% -29.3%
≤30d 727 -15.1% -23.2% 31% 31% -29.3%
≤90d 727 -15.1% -23.2% 31% 31% -29.3%
all 727 -15.1% -23.2% 31% 31% -29.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover711.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -23.2% 31% -29.3%
10% ← realistic here -30.5% 29% -36.1%
15% -37.2% 26% -42.3%
20% -43.4% 23% -47.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +25% → late -56% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
8.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$12 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.35 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$116
Realized+$2,442
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses227 / 500
Open positions0
Markets (closed)727 / 391
History coverage5d ⚠
Avg bet$42
Trades / day711.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 727 Trades
no open positions (497 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
BNB Up or Down - June 4, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 17 $32 +$30 +93%
BNB Up or Down - April 30, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $6 +$2 +30%
BNB Up or Down - June 4, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$4 +166%
BNB Up or Down - May 28, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 17 $0 +$1 +144%
BNB Up or Down - May 29, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 +104%
BNB Up or Down - April 29, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 +104%
BNB Up or Down - June 12, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 +96%
BNB Up or Down - June 4, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 +96%
BNB Up or Down - May 5, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 +104%
BNB Up or Down - May 9, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 17 $0 +$1 +223%
BNB Up or Down - June 9, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +75%
BNB Up or Down - May 29, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 17 $0 +$1 +144%
BNB Up or Down - May 18, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 9, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 +76%
BNB Up or Down - April 29, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $0 +$1 +245%
BNB Up or Down - May 20, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 +96%
BNB Up or Down - June 2, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 +70%
BNB Up or Down - May 18, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 +68%
BNB Up or Down - May 19, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 +156%
BNB Up or Down - May 10, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 +108%
BNB Up or Down - June 3, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +30%
BNB Up or Down - June 4, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 +72%
BNB Up or Down - May 21, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +43%
BNB Up or Down - May 11, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 17 $94 −$94 -100%
BNB Up or Down - May 10, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 +96%
BNB Up or Down - June 10, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +28%
BNB Up or Down - May 5, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 +108%
BNB Up or Down - June 2, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 +67%
BNB Up or Down - May 27, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 +104%
BNB Up or Down - June 3, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 +30%
BNB Up or Down - May 28, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 +144%
BNB Up or Down - May 28, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 +376%
BNB Up or Down - May 18, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 +41%
BNB Up or Down - May 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +24%
BNB Up or Down - May 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 +156%
BNB Up or Down - June 11, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 +45%
BNB Up or Down - June 4, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 +47%
BNB Up or Down - May 23, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
BNB Up or Down - May 21, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 +376%
BNB Up or Down - June 3, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 +64%
BNB Up or Down - May 9, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 +222%
BNB Up or Down - May 6, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 +27%
BNB Up or Down - May 13, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 +100%
BNB Up or Down - June 12, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 +108%
BNB Up or Down - June 11, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 +122%
BNB Up or Down - May 5, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 +52%
BNB Up or Down - June 2, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 +317%
BNB Up or Down - May 20, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 +64%
BNB Up or Down - June 10, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 +70%
BNB Up or Down - May 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 +144%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $0 17m
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 23m
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $1 49m
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $0 49m
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $30 50m
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $11 50m
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 51m
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 51m
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 51m
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 51m
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 51m
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 51m
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 51m
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 51m
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 52m
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 52m
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 54m
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $33 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $0 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $0 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $2 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $0 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $0 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $6 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 2h
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 2h
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 2h
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 2h
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $116.19 · official $75.17 · 3500 history records