Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:53:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7D 0x7d8c…e0f6 weather 736 markets active 6d ago coverage 174d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$103 (-2%) realized −$103 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate77%570W / 166L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day8.8pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$2
14 days−$7
30 days+$92
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 65% −$6
sports 22% −$30
culture 5% −$132
crypto 4% −$14
other 2% +$71
world 1% −$11
politics 1% −$6
tech 0% +$1
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +5.2% -4.8% 75% 25% -12.9%
≤30d 80 +19.2% +7.8% 76% 22% -5.1%
≤90d 421 -3.5% -12.7% 76% 18% -11.4%
all 736 -5.2% -14.2% 77% 18% -13.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.2% 18% -13.0%
10% -22.4% 8% -21.3%
15% -29.9% 5% -28.9%
20% -36.8% 3% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$4 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

174d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$103
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses570 / 166
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)736 / 736
History coverage174d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day8.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 736 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 $0 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $40 −$4 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 11? Jun 11 $9 +$1 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 10? Jun 10 $15 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 10? Jun 10 $5 −$1 -22%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 31°C on June 10? Jun 10 $20 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 10? Jun 10 $7 +$2 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 29°C on June 9? Jun 09 $10 +$3 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 43°C on June 9? Jun 09 $5 +$1 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on June 9? Jun 09 $5 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 9? Jun 09 $5 +$1 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on June 8? Jun 09 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 8? Jun 08 $5 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on June 8? Jun 08 $5 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 6? Jun 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 7? Jun 07 $15 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 7? Jun 07 $15 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 6? Jun 06 $20 +$8 +41%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 6? Jun 06 $5 +$3 +50%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 6? Jun 06 $20 +$3 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 6? Jun 06 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 6? Jun 06 $15 −$1 -5%
Will India win? Jun 06 $25 +$1 +3%
T20 Blast: Surrey vs Hampshire Jun 05 $52 $0 +1%
T20 Blast: Gloucestershire vs Somerset Jun 05 $5 +$1 +10%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju Jun 05 $7 $0 +1%
T20 Blast: Worcestershire vs Glamorgan Jun 05 $45 −$10 -23%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on June 5? Jun 05 $2 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C or below on June 4? Jun 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C on June 5? Jun 05 $5 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 5? Jun 05 $16 +$2 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 4? Jun 04 $5 $0 -2%
T20 Ireland Tri-Series, Women: Pakistan vs West Indies Jun 04 $10 −$2 -22%
T20 Scotland Tri-Series, Women: Scotland vs Netherlands Jun 03 $10 +$6 +58%
T20 Blast: Hampshire vs Sussex Jun 02 $10 +$5 +48%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans May 31 $172 +$14 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on May 30? May 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on May 30? May 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on May 30? May 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals May 29 $30 +$5 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 18°C on May 29? May 29 $9 −$1 -12%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals May 27 $44 +$7 +17%
Will Sunrisers Hyderabad win the 2026 Indian Premier League? May 27 $7 −$1 -12%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 43°C on May 27? May 27 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on May 25? May 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on May 26? May 25 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C or higher on May 26? May 25 $16 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on May 26? May 25 $1 $0 -42%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on May 25? May 25 $4 $0 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 12? BUY Yes 96¢ $10 5d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 11? SELL No 99¢ $2 6d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 31°C on June 11? SELL No 86¢ $36 6d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 11? BUY No 84¢ $2 6d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 31°C on June 11? BUY No 96¢ $30 6d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 31°C on June 11? BUY No 89¢ $10 6d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 11? SELL No 99¢ $10 6d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 11? BUY No 90¢ $9 6d
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 10? SELL No 99¢ $16 7d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 10? SELL No 73¢ $4 7d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 31°C on June 10? SELL No 99¢ $21 7d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 10? SELL No 99¢ $9 7d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 10? BUY No 92¢ $5 7d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 10? BUY No 75¢ $7 7d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 31°C on June 10? BUY No 94¢ $20 7d
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 10? BUY No 91¢ $15 7d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 29°C on June 9? SELL No 99¢ $12 8d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 29°C on June 9? SELL No 99¢ $2 8d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 29°C on June 9? BUY No 75¢ $10 8d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 43°C on June 9? SELL No 99¢ $6 8d
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on June 9? SELL No 99¢ $5 8d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 9? SELL Yes 99¢ $6 8d
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on June 9? BUY No 93¢ $5 8d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 9? BUY Yes 87¢ $5 8d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 43°C on June 9? BUY No 88¢ $5 8d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 8? SELL No 68¢ $5 9d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on June 8? SELL No 99¢ $5 9d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on June 8? BUY No 94¢ $5 9d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on June 8? BUY No 76¢ $4 9d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 8? BUY No 63¢ $5 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1759 history records