Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T19:06:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
7D 0x7d8f…6dfd sports 50 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$441 (+4%) realized +$432 · open +$9
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate54%26W / 22L
Whale WR78%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$233per market
Trades / day29.3pace
Fees−$79est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$117now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 60% +$1,023
sports 35% −$884
crypto 5% +$382
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 48 -2.7% -12.0% 54% 52% -4.9%
≤30d 48 -2.7% -12.0% 54% 52% -4.9%
≤90d 48 -2.7% -12.0% 54% 52% -4.9%
all 48 -2.7% -12.0% 54% 52% -4.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.0% 52% -4.9%
10% ← realistic here -20.4% 42% -14.0%
15% -28.1% 27% -22.3%
20% -35.2% 21% -29.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 78% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -8% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$165 vs −$172 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$117
Realized+$432
Unrealized+$9
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses26 / 22
Whale WR (big bets)78%
Est. fees paid−$79
Open positions1
Markets (closed)48 / 50
History coverage5d
Avg bet$233
Trades / day29.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? Yes 18¢ 20¢ $108 $117 +$9 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $936 +$573 +61%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $101 +$24 +24%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 24 $314 −$307 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $661 +$459 +70%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $100 +$25 +25%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $154 +$384 +250%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $100 +$25 +25%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $605 −$605 -100%
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 23 $165 −$165 -100%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $143 −$143 -100%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $930 +$70 +8%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) AND Spread: Jordan (-1.5) AND Spread: Senegal ( Jun 23 $101 +$28 +28%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $101 +$28 +27%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $154 −$121 -79%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $80 +$20 +25%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $514 +$234 +46%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $83 −$83 -100%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $149 −$146 -98%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $78 +$22 +29%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $949 +$611 +64%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $263 −$257 -98%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $58 +$200 +348%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $548 −$548 -100%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $100 +$383 +383%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $394 −$393 -100%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $139 −$29 -21%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $100 +$14 +14%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $215 −$209 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $47 +$27 +59%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $88 −$87 -98%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $146 +$32 +22%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $62 +$26 +42%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $200 +$96 +48%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $69 −$69 -100%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $101 +$16 +16%
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 20 $89 −$89 -100%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $64 −$3 -4%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $94 +$12 +12%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $608 +$382 +63%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $152 −$122 -80%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $509 +$357 +70%
Spread: Australia (-1.5) AND Spread: Scotland (-1.5) AND Will Brazil w Jun 19 $47 $0 -1%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $142 −$139 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $399 +$248 +62%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Australia? Jun 19 $3 $0 +11%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $153 −$150 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $111 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 62¢ $364 17h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 62¢ $38 17h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 62¢ $129 17h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 62¢ $0 17h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 62¢ $1 17h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 62¢ $3 17h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 62¢ $4 17h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 62¢ $5 17h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 62¢ $3 17h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 62¢ $32 17h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 62¢ $32 17h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 62¢ $325 17h
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $314 17h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 59¢ $278 19h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 59¢ $14 19h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 59¢ $3 19h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 59¢ $25 19h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 59¢ $36 19h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 59¢ $134 19h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 59¢ $29 19h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 59¢ $9 19h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 59¢ $132 19h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 59¢ $2 19h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $399 21h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $30 21h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $8 21h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $128 21h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $17 21h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $4 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $117.00 · official $111.00 · 181 history records