Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T02:13:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7D 0x7d8f…4aee other 160 markets active 1h ago coverage 136d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$527 (-11%) realized −$432 · open −$95
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate34%42W / 83L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$1,113now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$60
7 days−$70
14 days−$354
30 days−$463
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 28% +$131
crypto 23% −$416
politics 17% +$29
sports 11% −$172
tech 9% −$117
world 6% −$102
finance 3% −$6
culture 2% −$25
weather 1% +$66
economics 1% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-32.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -31.4% -38.0% 30% 30% -22.9%
≤30d 71 -18.1% -25.9% 35% 32% -24.1%
≤90d 120 -30.5% -37.2% 32% 28% -24.0%
all 125 -25.2% -32.3% 34% 29% -22.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.3% 29% -22.9%
10% -38.8% 24% -30.3%
15% -44.7% 18% -37.0%
20% -50.1% 14% -43.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -30% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$23 · ×1.4 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

136d coverage
Net worth$1,113
Realized−$432
Unrealized−$95
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses42 / 83
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions36
Markets (closed)125 / 160
History coverage136d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 36 History 125 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Trump speak to Mohammed bin Salman in June? No 41¢ 86¢ $50 $105 +$55 (+110%)
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? Down 63¢ 66¢ $100 $104 +$4 (+4%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 15¢ $50 $81 +$31 (+62%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29? No 64¢ 83¢ $50 $65 +$15 (+30%)
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 77¢ 95¢ $50 $62 +$12 (+23%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? No 79¢ 94¢ $50 $60 +$10 (+19%)
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 43¢ 44¢ $50 $52 +$2 (+3%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month? No 45¢ 46¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+2%)
Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026? Yes 13¢ 14¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+1%)
GPT-5.6 released by July 13, 2026? No 49¢ 48¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House Yes 47¢ 42¢ $50 $45 −$5 (-10%)
Will inflation reach more than 6% in 2026? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $50 $45 −$5 (-11%)
Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026? Yes 14¢ 12¢ $48 $43 −$5 (-11%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? No 76¢ 88¢ $34 $40 +$6 (+16%)
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? Yes 40¢ 90¢ $15 $34 +$19 (+124%)
Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026? Yes 24¢ 20¢ $30 $24 −$6 (-19%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? Yes 37¢ 34¢ $25 $23 −$2 (-7%)
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+5%)
Will Javier Milei win the 2027 Argentina presidential election? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $21 $21 −$0 (-2%)
Fed rate hike in 2026? Yes 56¢ 52¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-6%)
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to no prison time? No 20¢ 8¢ $42 $18 −$24 (-57%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? Yes 68¢ 30¢ $29 $13 −$16 (-56%)
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes 32¢ 80¢ $5 $12 +$7 (+146%)
Will Russia capture Dovha Balka by June 30? Yes 23¢ 6¢ $50 $12 −$38 (-75%)
Will John Pardon win the 2026 Fields Medal? No 42¢ 48¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 47 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $39 −$39 -100%
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 26 $76 −$24 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 26 $104 −$14 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 26 $52 +$13 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 26 $25 +$46 +181%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $51 −$39 -76%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 25 $101 +$25 +25%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman? Jun 19 $10 +$5 +47%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $64 −$35 -55%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $29 +$15 +51%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $40 +$6 +14%
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? Jun 17 $51 +$5 +10%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 17 $28 +$12 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 17 $107 −$107 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 17 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $226 −$220 -98%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $51 +$5 +9%
Will Fiona Ma win the California Lieutenant Governor Election in 2026? Jun 17 $101 +$32 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 16 $50 +$6 +13%
Will Steve Hilton finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary Jun 16 $40 +$13 +33%
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 16 $101 +$35 +34%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? Jun 16 $101 +$21 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 16 $11 −$10 -95%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$115 +1116%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $26 +$58 +226%
Will Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $155B by June 30? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -99%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $51 +$254 +495%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $25 −$25 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $51 +$51 +101%
Will "Backrooms" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 11m and 12m? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -96%
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in June? Jun 14 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 10 $4 −$4 -98%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 10 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET SELL Up 10¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET SELL Down 66¢ $81 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET SELL Down 47¢ $65 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET SELL Up 55¢ $71 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $25 1h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY No 43¢ $51 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? SELL No 75¢ $125 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 76¢ $34 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 37¢ $25 1h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? SELL Yes 48¢ $44 1h
GPT-5.6 released by July 13, 2026? BUY No 49¢ $51 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 2¢ $4 1h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $26 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 30¢ $51 1h
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY Yes 56¢ $20 19h
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? BUY Down 63¢ $101 19h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on BUY No 45¢ $51 19h
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 43¢ $51 20h
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY No 77¢ $50 20h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 83¢ $25 20h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29? BUY No 64¢ $51 20h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY No 79¢ $50 20h
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL Yes 90¢ $126 20h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 3d
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 40¢ $15 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 45¢ $43 8d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 44¢ $43 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,112.62 · official $1,112.63 (match) · 308 history records