Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T09:56:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7D 0x7d93…fdef crypto 7 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ bot/MM pace (113 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$78 (+5%) realized +$78 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate57%4W / 3L
Drawdown96%max
Avg bet$227per market
Trades / day112.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -3.6% -12.8% 57% 43% -9.2%
≤30d 7 -3.6% -12.8% 57% 43% -9.2%
≤90d 7 -3.6% -12.8% 57% 43% -9.2%
all 7 -3.6% -12.8% 57% 43% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover112.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.8% 43% -9.2%
10% ← realistic here -21.1% 29% -17.9%
15% -28.7% 14% -25.8%
20% -35.7% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 67% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
19.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$42 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$78
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses4 / 3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)7 / 7
History coverage2d
Avg bet$227
Trades / day112.5
Drawdown96%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 7 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 27 $48 −$6 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 27 $33 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 27 $731 −$119 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 27 $285 +$10 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 27 $97 +$46 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 27 $253 +$41 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 25 $139 +$33 +24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET SELL Down 84¢ $42 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET SELL Up 74¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET SELL Up 74¢ $18 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET SELL Up 74¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET SELL Up 74¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET SELL Up 79¢ $27 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET SELL Down 49¢ $23 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET SELL Down 49¢ $47 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $18 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $32 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $34 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $34 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $34 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $32 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $30 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $28 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $24 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $5 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 181 history records