Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:37:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7D 0x7d98…04f6 crypto 298 markets active 0h ago coverage 420d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$300 (-9%) realized −$301 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate59%175W / 122L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$20
7 days−$55
14 days−$172
30 days−$172
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$338
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-18.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 222 -10.0% -18.5% 57% 36% -15.6%
≤30d 273 -10.4% -18.9% 57% 40% -24.8%
≤90d 273 -10.4% -18.9% 57% 40% -24.8%
all 297 -9.7% -18.3% 59% 40% -19.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.3% 40% -19.1%
10% -26.1% 20% -26.8%
15% -33.2% 16% -33.9%
20% -39.8% 6% -40.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$4 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.31 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

420d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$301
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses175 / 122
Open positions1
Markets (closed)297 / 298
History coverage420d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 297 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Down 61¢ 78¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+27%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 43 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$3 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$1 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 17 $16 −$5 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$1 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$2 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$1 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 17 $4 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$1 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$3 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$1 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 17 $4 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$1 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $4 +$2 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$1 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 17 $6 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 17 $4 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$1 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 17 $8 −$1 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 17 $3 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 16 $8 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 16 $6 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 16 $8 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 16 $6 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$2 -27%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $2 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET SELL Down 40¢ $2 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $0 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $3 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $0 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET SELL Up 27¢ $1 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $3 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET SELL Down 40¢ $2 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET SELL Up 44¢ $4 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET SELL Down 25¢ $4 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET SELL Down 31¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET SELL Down 29¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET SELL Up 9¢ $0 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET SELL Up 32¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $0 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET SELL Down 73¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET SELL Down 14¢ $0 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET SELL Up 34¢ $1 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.54 · official $2.54 (match) · 955 history records