Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T05:23:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7D 0x7da0…83f0 other 40 markets active 2h ago coverage 24d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$320 (-11%) realized −$320 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate29%11W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$72per market
Trades / day6.4pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$65now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$116
7 days−$147
14 days−$242
30 days−$301
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 35% −$174
world 30% −$120
sports 25% +$71
politics 7% −$66
finance 1% −$12
tech 1% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-22.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -26.0% -33.1% 22% 0% -20.2%
≤30d 38 -14.7% -22.8% 29% 3% -20.4%
≤90d 38 -14.7% -22.8% 29% 3% -20.4%
all 38 -14.7% -22.8% 29% 3% -20.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.8% 3% -20.4%
10% -30.2% 3% -28.0%
15% -36.9% 3% -35.0%
20% -43.1% 3% -41.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 88% · top 2 96% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$15 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.21 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$65
Realized−$320
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses11 / 27
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions2
Markets (closed)38 / 40
History coverage24d
Avg bet$72
Trades / day6.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026? Yes 33¢ 32¢ $45 $44 −$1 (-2%)
Will Ed Miliband be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026? No 34¢ 34¢ $20 $21 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In Jun 28 $582 +$1 +0%
Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide? Jun 28 $46 $0 +0%
Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by July 31? Jun 28 $17 −$1 -4%
Will Patrick Von Dohlen win the 2026 Bexar County Judge election? Jun 28 $50 −$40 -79%
Xi meets with Lee Jae-Myung by July 31? Jun 28 $100 −$77 -77%
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by December 31? Jun 22 $32 −$18 -56%
Will Wes Streeting be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK i Jun 22 $25 −$2 -8%
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 22 $366 −$9 -2%
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 22 $30 −$3 -10%
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026? Jun 22 $9 $0 -4%
Will Keir Starmer be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership e Jun 19 $45 −$25 -55%
Will there be no Somaliland parliamentary election before 2027? Jun 18 $61 −$1 -2%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 m Jun 18 $15 $0 -3%
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026? Jun 17 $57 −$19 -33%
Cap FDV above $100M one day after launch? Jun 17 $60 −$24 -40%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? Jun 17 $7 −$3 -49%
Cap FDV above $250M one day after launch? Jun 17 $16 $0 -1%
Will the US federal government take a stake in Taiwan Semiconductor Ma Jun 17 $122 −$23 -18%
Will Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 3 Jun 16 $11 $0 -0%
Will the National Regeneration Movement (Morena) win the most seats in Jun 16 $2 $0 -4%
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fa Jun 15 $16 $0 +2%
Will Shehbaz Sharif sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 15 $2 $0 +0%
Will Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 12 $130 −$68 -53%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $131 +$70 +53%
Will Accenture (ACN) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 12 $36 −$12 -35%
Will there be exactly 3 ChatGPT outages in June 2026? Jun 11 $7 $0 +0%
Will the official close price for the Nikkei 225 on the final trading Jun 11 $21 $0 -2%
Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027? Jun 11 $95 +$6 +7%
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June 15? Jun 11 $13 $0 +2%
Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $74 $0 +0%
Base FDV above $3B one day after launch? Jun 11 $37 −$17 -48%
Next Mythos-Class Model released by July 31, 2026? Jun 11 $73 −$29 -40%
Next Mythos-Class Model released by August 31, 2026? Jun 11 $7 $0 +3%
Will Bert Mizusawa be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia? Jun 10 $6 $0 +1%
Will Tom Begich win the 2026 Alaska governor election? Jun 10 $29 −$1 -3%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 10 $170 −$7 -4%
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027? Jun 07 $6 $0 +2%
Will the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard deb Jun 06 $1 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by Septembe BUY Yes 33¢ $45 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by Septembe SELL No 67¢ $72 5h
Will Ed Miliband be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in BUY No 34¢ $21 5h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by Septembe BUY No 66¢ $71 5h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In SELL T1 85¢ $584 6h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In BUY T1 84¢ $582 7h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by Septembe SELL Yes 26¢ $60 8h
Will Ed Miliband be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in SELL No 36¢ $4 8h
Will Ed Miliband be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in BUY No 36¢ $4 8h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by Septembe BUY Yes 44¢ $100 9h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by Septembe SELL Yes 46¢ $102 10h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by Septembe SELL Yes 46¢ $0 10h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by Septembe BUY Yes 45¢ $100 12h
Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide? SELL No 56¢ $34 16h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by Septembe SELL No 53¢ $0 16h
Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide? SELL No 57¢ $12 16h
Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide? BUY No 56¢ $46 16h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by Septembe BUY No 51¢ $0 19h
Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by July 31? SELL No 83¢ $16 21h
Will Patrick Von Dohlen win the 2026 Bexar County Judge election? SELL Yes 8¢ $10 21h
Xi meets with Lee Jae-Myung by July 31? SELL Yes 19¢ $23 21h
Will Patrick Von Dohlen win the 2026 Bexar County Judge election? BUY Yes 37¢ $50 24h
Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by July 31? BUY No 86¢ $17 27h
Xi meets with Lee Jae-Myung by July 31? BUY Yes 77¢ $100 27h
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by December 31? SELL Yes 14¢ $14 6d
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by December 31? BUY Yes 32¢ $32 6d
Will Wes Streeting be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK i SELL No 39¢ $23 6d
Will Wes Streeting be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK i BUY No 40¢ $25 6d
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? SELL No 83¢ $58 6d
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $60 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $65.18 · official $65.18 (match) · 173 history records