Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T17:18:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
7D 0x7da3…bf1b sports 93 markets active 1h ago coverage 26d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$92 (-9%) realized −$81 · open −$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate55%40W / 33L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day5.2pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$308now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$20
7 days−$9
14 days−$9
30 days−$90
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 86% −$83
crypto 12% +$3
other 2% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-21.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 +3.7% -6.2% 75% 69% -12.1%
≤30d 73 -13.5% -21.7% 55% 52% -22.9%
≤90d 73 -13.5% -21.7% 55% 52% -22.9%
all 73 -13.5% -21.7% 55% 52% -22.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.7% 52% -22.9%
10% -29.2% 41% -30.3%
15% -36.0% 33% -37.0%
20% -42.3% 22% -43.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -24% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$6 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$308
Realized−$81
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses40 / 33
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions20
Markets (closed)73 / 93
History coverage26d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day5.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 20 History 73 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
ITF Brussels: Tom Zeuch vs Rodrigo Alujas Tom Zeuch 65¢ 99¢ $18 $27 +$9 (+53%)
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Mona Barthel vs Lin Zhu Lin Zhu 72¢ 100¢ $19 $26 +$7 (+39%)
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Arantxa Rus vs Veronika Podrez Veronika Podrez 66¢ 92¢ $18 $26 +$7 (+39%)
ITF Brussels: Alessio Basile vs Robert Strombachs Robert Strombachs 78¢ 94¢ $19 $23 +$4 (+20%)
ITF Brussels: Remy Dugardin vs Tim Handel Tim Handel 82¢ 98¢ $19 $23 +$4 (+19%)
ITF Alkmaar: Sammy Guinau vs Alexander Maarten Sander Jong Alexander Maarten Sander Jong 91¢ 94¢ $18 $19 +$1 (+4%)
Valorant: Contra vs LYON (BO3) - VCL Latin America North: Regular Season LYON 90¢ 90¢ $18 $18 −$0 (-1%)
Piracicaba: Wilson Leite vs Filipe Bullamah Wilson Leite 87¢ 87¢ $18 $18 +$0 (+0%)
Piracicaba: Santiago De La Fuente vs Santiago Rodriguez Taverna Santiago Rodriguez Taverna 51¢ 50¢ $18 $18 −$0 (-1%)
ITF Slovenska Bistrica: Lucio Ratti vs Alessandro Battiston Lucio Ratti 90¢ 90¢ $18 $18 +$0 (+0%)
Set Handicap: Podrez (-1.5) vs Rus (+1.5) Rus 52¢ 49¢ $18 $17 −$1 (-6%)
Rainbow Six Siege: Virtus.pro vs Team Secret (BO1) - Europe MENA League Stage 1 Group Stage Virtus.pro 76¢ 68¢ $18 $16 −$2 (-11%)
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Lola Radivojevic vs Marina Bassols Ribera Marina Bassols Ribera 68¢ 58¢ $18 $16 −$3 (-14%)
Set Handicap: Handel (-1.5) vs Dugardin (+1.5) Handel 61¢ 50¢ $17 $14 −$3 (-18%)
ITF Bakio: Matt Ponchet vs Robin Bertrand Robin Bertrand 78¢ 88¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+13%)
Valorant: KRÜ Blaze vs BESTIA (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Regular Season BESTIA 90¢ 92¢ $6 $7 +$0 (+2%)
Set Handicap: Kinoshita (-1.5) vs Tomova (+1.5) Tomova 71¢ 50¢ $7 $5 −$2 (-30%)
Set Handicap: Darderi (-1.5) vs Hanfmann (+1.5) Hanfmann 72¢ 56¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-22%)
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Julia Grabher vs Mariam Bolkvadze Julia Grabher 65¢ 16¢ $18 $4 −$14 (-76%)
Map Handicap: MDR (-1.5) vs AlQadsiah Esports (+1.5) AlQadsiah Esports 67¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 24 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Set Handicap: Ku (-1.5) vs Kostovic (+1.5) Jun 23 $7 +$3 +36%
Plovdiv: Alexander Vasilev vs Niels Visker Jun 23 $59 +$14 +24%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Carole Monnet vs Tatiana Prozorova Jun 23 $17 +$6 +38%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Polina Kudermetova vs Jessika Ponchet Jun 23 $19 +$9 +46%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Ashlyn Krueger vs Gabriela Knutson Jun 23 $6 +$1 +20%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Alice Rame vs Caroline Werner Jun 23 $20 +$10 +50%
ITF Bakio: Oscar Weightman vs Darrshan Suresh Jun 23 $7 $0 +5%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Amelia Rajecki vs Suzan Lamens Jun 23 $7 +$1 +16%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Cadence Brace vs Kayla Day Jun 23 $7 +$2 +36%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Despina Papamichail vs Claire Liu Jun 23 $6 +$1 +14%
Angela Fita Boluda vs. Lina Gjorcheska: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $7 +$3 +52%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Ekaterine Gorgodze vs Vendula Valdmannov Jun 23 $20 −$20 -100%
Set Handicap: Teichmann (-1.5) vs Masarova (+1.5) Jun 23 $18 −$18 -100%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Alina Korneeva vs Alexandra Shubladze Jun 23 $7 +$4 +62%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Lulu Sun vs Linda Klimovicova Jun 23 $7 +$4 +52%
Set Handicap: Preston (-1.5) vs Grant (+1.5) Jun 23 $6 +$4 +60%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Laura Pigossi vs Oceane Dodin Jun 23 $4 +$2 +57%
Bad Homburg Open: Eva Lys vs Emma Navarro Jun 23 $5 +$3 +60%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Guiomar Maristany vs Jazmin Ortenzi Jun 23 $7 −$1 -18%
Valorant: FUSION vs LAZER (BO3) - VCL Latin America North: Regular Sea Jun 23 $3 +$2 +62%
Valorant: UCAM Esports Club vs Pixel Lumina (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Jun 23 $7 +$2 +27%
Rainbow Six Siege: Virtus.pro vs Heretics (BO1) - Europe MENA League S Jun 22 $7 +$1 +20%
Valorant: REBORN vs Ghools Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group D Jun 22 $7 +$1 +20%
Rainbow Six Siege: Rebels Gaming vs G2 Esports (BO1) - Europe MENA Lea Jun 22 $7 +$1 +20%
Julia Riera vs. Daniella Britton: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $7 −$7 -99%
Piracicaba: Juan Bautista Torres vs Alex Hernandez Jun 22 $6 +$2 +24%
Bad Homburg Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Linda Noskova Jun 22 $7 −$6 -99%
Set Handicap: Gjorcheska (-1.5) vs Boluda (+1.5) Jun 22 $7 −$7 -99%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Yunchaokete Bu vs Hugo Dellien Jun 22 $6 +$1 +10%
Yunchaokete Bu vs. Hugo Dellien: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $3 +$1 +27%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Jun 21 $14 −$14 -99%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $16 −$16 -98%
Set Handicap: Ruud (-1.5) vs Paul (+1.5) May 30 $3 −$3 -100%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 May 29 $1 −$1 -84%
T20 Blast: Hampshire vs Surrey May 29 $6 +$1 +18%
LoL: Ronaldo Team vs Bubliki (BO5) - LPLOL Playoffs May 29 $3 −$2 -60%
Map Handicap: NRG (-1.5) vs FURIA Esports (+1.5) May 29 $3 $0 -11%
Game Handicap: CNV (-1.5) vs CCG Esports (+1.5) May 29 $3 −$3 -98%
Valorant: FURIA Esports vs NRG (BO3) - Esports World Cup Americas Qual May 29 $4 $0 -3%
Game Handicap: Ronaldo Team (-1.5) vs Bubliki (+1.5) May 29 $2 +$1 +50%
Set Handicap: Bencic (-1.5) vs Stearns (+1.5) May 29 $3 +$3 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET May 29 $11 +$4 +31%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. North Macedonia: O/U 0.5 May 29 $15 −$15 -98%
T20 Blast: Northamptonshire vs Gloucestershire May 29 $3 +$2 +62%
T20 Blast: Derbyshire vs Nottinghamshire May 29 $6 −$3 -50%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-05-29? May 29 $21 −$20 -98%
T20 Blast: Worcestershire vs Warwickshire May 29 $6 −$3 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET May 29 $12 +$3 +21%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. North Macedonia: O/U 1.5 May 29 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET May 29 $22 −$9 -42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Plovdiv: Alexander Vasilev vs Niels Visker SELL Alexander Vasilev 100¢ $30 44m
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Carole Monnet vs Tatiana Prozorova SELL Tatiana Prozorova 100¢ $23 44m
Set Handicap: Kinoshita (-1.5) vs Tomova (+1.5) BUY Tomova 71¢ $7 57m
Rainbow Six Siege: Virtus.pro vs Team Secret (BO1) - Europe MENA Leagu BUY Virtus.pro 76¢ $18 59m
Set Handicap: Podrez (-1.5) vs Rus (+1.5) BUY Rus 52¢ $18 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Arantxa Rus vs Veronika Podrez BUY Veronika Podrez 66¢ $19 1h
Set Handicap: Handel (-1.5) vs Dugardin (+1.5) BUY Handel 61¢ $18 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Mona Barthel vs Lin Zhu BUY Lin Zhu 72¢ $13 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Mona Barthel vs Lin Zhu BUY Lin Zhu 72¢ $5 1h
Valorant: Contra vs LYON (BO3) - VCL Latin America North: Regular Seas BUY LYON 90¢ $18 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Julia Grabher vs Mariam Bolkvadze BUY Julia Grabher 65¢ $19 1h
Plovdiv: Alexander Vasilev vs Niels Visker SELL Alexander Vasilev 71¢ $43 1h
ITF Bakio: Matt Ponchet vs Robin Bertrand SELL Robin Bertrand 76¢ $19 1h
ITF Brussels: Remy Dugardin vs Tim Handel SELL Tim Handel 81¢ $19 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Lola Radivojevic vs Marina Bassols Riber BUY Marina Bassols Ribera 68¢ $18 2h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Carole Monnet vs Tatiana Prozorova BUY Tatiana Prozorova 72¢ $17 2h
ITF Alkmaar: Sammy Guinau vs Alexander Maarten Sander Jong BUY Alexander Maarten Sander Jong 91¢ $18 2h
Piracicaba: Santiago De La Fuente vs Santiago Rodriguez Taverna BUY Santiago Rodriguez Taverna 51¢ $18 2h
ITF Brussels: Tom Zeuch vs Rodrigo Alujas BUY Tom Zeuch 65¢ $18 2h
Piracicaba: Wilson Leite vs Filipe Bullamah BUY Wilson Leite 87¢ $18 2h
Map Handicap: MDR (-1.5) vs AlQadsiah Esports (+1.5) BUY AlQadsiah Esports 67¢ $18 2h
ITF Slovenska Bistrica: Lucio Ratti vs Alessandro Battiston BUY Lucio Ratti 90¢ $18 2h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Cadence Brace vs Kayla Day SELL Kayla Day 100¢ $9 2h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Polina Kudermetova vs Jessika Ponchet BUY Polina Kudermetova 68¢ $19 3h
Set Handicap: Ku (-1.5) vs Kostovic (+1.5) BUY Kostovic 73¢ $7 3h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Ekaterine Gorgodze vs Vendula Valdmannov BUY Vendula Valdmannova 72¢ $0 3h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Ekaterine Gorgodze vs Vendula Valdmannov BUY Vendula Valdmannova 72¢ $5 3h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Ekaterine Gorgodze vs Vendula Valdmannov BUY Vendula Valdmannova 72¢ $4 3h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Ekaterine Gorgodze vs Vendula Valdmannov BUY Vendula Valdmannova 72¢ $4 3h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Ekaterine Gorgodze vs Vendula Valdmannov BUY Vendula Valdmannova 72¢ $7 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $307.72 · official $307.72 (match) · 172 history records