Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T09:44:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
7D 0x7da6…100a other 39 markets active 1h ago coverage 59d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$2,841 (+6%) realized +$3,751 · open −$910
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate95%36W / 2L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown4%max
Avg bet$1,300per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$50est.
Kalshi-fit18%portable
Net worth$948now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$73
7 days+$182
14 days+$238
30 days+$815
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 78% −$533
sports 14% +$2,262
world 8% +$125
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +1.0% -8.6% 100% 0% -8.6%
≤30d 28 +2.3% -7.4% 100% 4% -7.8%
≤90d 38 +1.3% -8.4% 95% 13% -4.4%
all 38 +1.3% -8.4% 95% 13% -4.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.4% 13% -4.4%
10% -17.2% 11% -13.6%
15% -25.2% 8% -21.9%
20% -32.5% 0% -29.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 70% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$1,861) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$80 vs −$60 · ×1.33 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×23.87 per $1 lost it wins $23.87
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

59d coverage
Net worth$948
Realized+$3,751
Unrealized−$910
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses36 / 2
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$50
Open positions1
Markets (closed)38 / 39
History coverage59d
Avg bet$1,300
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown4%
Kalshi-fit18%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Kerim Alajbegović: 4+ goals + assists No 99¢ 50¢ $1,858 $948 −$910 (-49%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ivan Perišić: 3+ goals Jun 24 $1,860 +$18 +1%
Samu Costa: 3+ goals Jun 23 $1,860 +$18 +1%
Kylian Mbappé: 4+ goals + assists Jun 23 $1,860 +$18 +1%
Hamza Abdelkarim: 3+ goals Jun 22 $1,861 +$18 +1%
Alex Baena: 3+ goals Jun 21 $1,861 +$18 +1%
Kendry Páez: 4+ goals + assists Jun 21 $1,862 +$18 +1%
Crysencio Summerville: 3+ goals Jun 20 $1,862 +$18 +1%
Gessime Yassine: 4+ goals + assists Jun 20 $1,862 +$18 +1%
Nestory Irankunda: 3+ goals Jun 19 $1,863 +$18 +1%
Adam Hložek: 3+ goals Jun 18 $1,863 +$18 +1%
Jens Hauge: 3+ goals Jun 17 $2,842 +$28 +1%
Jean-Philippe Mateta: 3+ goals Jun 16 $2,842 +$28 +1%
Exact Score: Peru 3 - 0 Spain? Jun 09 $1,114 +$11 +1%
Exact Score: France 0 - 3 Northern Ireland? Jun 08 $1,139 +$11 +1%
Exact Score: Liechtenstein 3 - 2 Cyprus? Jun 07 $177 +$2 +1%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 3 Chile? Jun 07 $1,088 +$12 +1%
Exact Score: Thailand 0 - 3 Kuwait? Jun 06 $1,088 +$12 +1%
Exact Score: Slovenia 0 - 3 Cyprus? Jun 05 $1,088 +$12 +1%
Exact Score: Albania 0 - 3 Israel? Jun 04 $1,088 +$12 +1%
Exact Score: Georgia 0 - 3 Romania? Jun 03 $1,380 +$20 +2%
Exact Score: Bulgaria 0 - 3 Montenegro? Jun 02 $1,468 +$32 +2%
Exact Score: Singapore 0 - 3 Mongolia? Jun 01 $1,380 +$20 +2%
Gabriel Jesus: Anytime Goalscorer May 31 $1,373 +$20 +2%
Exact Score: Andorra 2 - 0 Iraq? May 30 $1,373 +$27 +2%
Exact Score: Egypt 2 - 0 Russia? May 29 $1,305 +$95 +7%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-4.5) May 27 $1,095 +$105 +10%
Kail Boudache: Anytime Goalscorer May 27 $961 +$39 +4%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-4.5) May 26 $854 +$146 +17%
Walid Cheddira: Anytime Goalscorer May 25 $7 +$3 +34%
Arkadiusz Milik: Anytime Goalscorer May 25 $20 +$10 +48%
Bruno Fernandes: Anytime Goalscorer May 24 $25 −$25 -100%
Asier Hierro: Anytime Goalscorer May 24 $294 +$6 +2%
Albert Gudmundsson: Anytime Goalscorer May 23 $96 +$4 +4%
Exact Score: Palermo FC 0 - 2 US Catanzaro 1929? May 21 $971 +$29 +3%
Exact Score: AC Monza 0 - 0 SS Juve Stabia? May 20 $91 +$9 +10%
Exact Score: CD Leganés 0 - 0 SD Huesca? May 18 $96 −$96 -100%
Will Nottingham Forest FC vs. Aston Villa FC end in a draw? May 07 $2,976 +$1,179 +40%
Will Gençlerbirliği SK vs. Kocaelispor end in a draw? Apr 26 $2,000 +$831 +42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Kerim Alajbegović: 4+ goals + assists BUY No 99¢ $1,859 1h
Ivan Perišić: 3+ goals BUY No 99¢ $1,860 11h
Samu Costa: 3+ goals BUY No 99¢ $1,860 25h
Kylian Mbappé: 4+ goals + assists BUY No 99¢ $1,860 46h
Hamza Abdelkarim: 3+ goals BUY No 99¢ $1,861 2d
Alex Baena: 3+ goals BUY No 99¢ $1,861 3d
Kendry Páez: 4+ goals + assists BUY No 99¢ $1,862 3d
Crysencio Summerville: 3+ goals BUY No 99¢ $1,862 4d
Gessime Yassine: 4+ goals + assists BUY No 99¢ $1,862 4d
Nestory Irankunda: 3+ goals BUY No 99¢ $1,863 5d
Adam Hložek: 3+ goals BUY No 99¢ $1,863 5d
Jens Hauge: 3+ goals BUY No 99¢ $2,842 7d
Jean-Philippe Mateta: 3+ goals BUY No 99¢ $2,842 7d
Exact Score: Peru 3 - 0 Spain? BUY No 99¢ $1,114 15d
Exact Score: France 0 - 3 Northern Ireland? BUY No 99¢ $1,139 15d
Exact Score: Liechtenstein 3 - 2 Cyprus? BUY No 99¢ $177 17d
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 3 Chile? BUY No 99¢ $1,088 18d
Exact Score: Thailand 0 - 3 Kuwait? BUY No 99¢ $1,088 19d
Exact Score: Slovenia 0 - 3 Cyprus? BUY No 99¢ $1,088 20d
Exact Score: Albania 0 - 3 Israel? BUY No 99¢ $1,088 21d
Exact Score: Georgia 0 - 3 Romania? BUY No 98¢ $1,380 22d
Exact Score: Bulgaria 0 - 3 Montenegro? BUY No 98¢ $1,468 23d
Exact Score: Singapore 0 - 3 Mongolia? BUY No 98¢ $1,380 24d
Gabriel Jesus: Anytime Goalscorer BUY No 98¢ $1,373 25d
Exact Score: Andorra 2 - 0 Iraq? BUY No 98¢ $1,373 26d
Exact Score: Egypt 2 - 0 Russia? BUY No 93¢ $1,305 27d
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-4.5) BUY St. Louis Cardinals 91¢ $1,095 28d
Kail Boudache: Anytime Goalscorer BUY No 96¢ $961 29d
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-4.5) BUY Baltimore Orioles 85¢ $854 30d
Arkadiusz Milik: Anytime Goalscorer BUY No 67¢ $20 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $947.88 · official $947.88 (match) · 76 history records