Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T19:16:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
7D 0x7da9…e7b3 sports 16 markets active 2h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$259 (-25%) realized −$277 · open +$18
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate47%7W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$64per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$86now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$92
7 days−$38
14 days−$63
30 days−$63
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% −$101
other 11% +$56
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-5.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +12.5% +1.8% 50% 50% -13.2%
≤30d 15 +5.0% -5.0% 47% 47% -15.5%
≤90d 15 +5.0% -5.0% 47% 47% -15.5%
all 15 +5.0% -5.0% 47% 47% -15.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.0% 47% -15.5%
10% -14.1% 47% -23.6%
15% -22.4% 47% -31.0%
20% -30.0% 40% -37.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 50% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +8% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$58 vs −$59 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$86
Realized−$277
Unrealized+$18
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses7 / 8
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)15 / 16
History coverage8d
Avg bet$64
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Yes 70¢ 88¢ $68 $86 +$18 (+26%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $71 −$2 -3%
Türkiye vs. United States: Both Teams to Score AND Tunisia vs. Netherl Jun 26 $25 +$42 +168%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $51 −$51 -100%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $51 −$50 -98%
Ecuador vs. Germany: Germany O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $202 −$200 -99%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $51 +$127 +250%
Scotland vs. Brazil: Brazil O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $101 +$50 +50%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $51 −$50 -99%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $51 +$40 +79%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $41 +$38 +93%
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $51 −$50 -99%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $41 −$41 -100%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $101 +$74 +73%
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $51 +$33 +65%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $25 −$25 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 70¢ $69 1h
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 57¢ $69 1h
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 57¢ $71 1h
Türkiye vs. United States: Both Teams to Score AND Tunisia vs. Netherl BUY 37¢ $25 20h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $51 21h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $51 23h
Ecuador vs. Germany: Germany O/U 1.5 BUY Over 63¢ $202 31h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 1.5 BUY Over 55¢ $51 45h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY 28¢ $51 45h
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $91 46h
Scotland vs. Brazil: Brazil O/U 1.5 BUY Over 66¢ $101 46h
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $51 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 51¢ $41 2d
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $51 2d
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 55¢ $41 3d
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 57¢ $101 3d
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 1.5 BUY Over 60¢ $51 4d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $25 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $86.48 · official $87.45 (match) · 26 history records