Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T01:42:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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7D 0x7dad…147c crypto 434 markets active 0h ago coverage 21d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 21d only
✗ bot/MM pace (141 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$196 (+1%) realized +$169 · open +$27
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate49%211W / 217L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day141.1pace
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$173now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$342
7 days+$342
14 days+$621
30 days+$157
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 87% +$57
weather 12% −$11
other 1% +$138
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (141 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 122 +15.4% +4.4% 47% 30% -0.5%
≤30d 428 -3.3% -12.5% 49% 43% -8.6%
≤90d 428 -3.3% -12.5% 49% 43% -8.6%
all 428 -3.3% -12.5% 49% 43% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover141.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.5% 43% -8.6%
10% ← realistic here -20.9% 38% -17.4%
15% -28.6% 30% -25.4%
20% -35.6% 25% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$18 · ×1.07 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$173
Realized+$169
Unrealized+$27
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses211 / 217
Open positions6
Markets (closed)428 / 434
History coverage21d ⚠
Avg bet$38
Trades / day141.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 428 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Up 42¢ 98¢ $16 $38 +$21 (+132%)
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Down 35¢ 40¢ $28 $32 +$5 (+17%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Down 19¢ 30¢ $18 $28 +$10 (+53%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Down 33¢ 30¢ $21 $20 −$1 (-7%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Up 63¢ 70¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+12%)
BNB Up or Down - June 28, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Up 84¢ 98¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+16%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Up 65¢ 69¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+7%)
BNB Up or Down - June 28, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Down 61¢ 37¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-39%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 30 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 29 $19 −$7 -38%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 29 $33 −$7 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 29 $23 −$11 -47%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 29 $49 +$48 +96%
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 29 $32 +$78 +243%
BNB Up or Down - June 28, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 29 $19 +$14 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 29 $4 −$4 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 28, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 29 $6 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 29 $35 +$59 +168%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 29 $80 +$4 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 29 $55 −$16 -29%
BNB Up or Down - June 28, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 29 $23 +$16 +69%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 29 $26 −$4 -15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 29 $12 −$11 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 29 $54 +$29 +54%
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 29 $33 $0 -0%
BNB Up or Down - June 28, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 29 $8 −$2 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 29 $31 +$18 +57%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 29 $55 +$67 +122%
BNB Up or Down - June 28, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 29 $8 −$2 -27%
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 29 $39 +$41 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 29 $5 −$2 -40%
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 29 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 29 $101 +$19 +19%
BNB Up or Down - June 28, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 29 $6 +$1 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 29 $41 +$7 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 29 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 29 $34 −$1 -3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 29 $34 −$22 -64%
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 29 $16 −$13 -81%
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 29 $38 −$38 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 28, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 29 $8 +$1 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 29 $29 −$27 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 29 $32 +$14 +44%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 29 $58 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 29 $23 −$20 -91%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 29 $24 −$10 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 29 $48 −$8 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 29 $6 $0 +6%
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 29 $25 −$25 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 29 $13 +$1 +7%
BNB Up or Down - June 28, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 29 $3 $0 +5%
BNB Up or Down - June 28, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 29 $14 +$1 +7%
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 29 $33 −$15 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 29 $50 −$10 -19%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 29 $43 −$27 -62%
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 29 $39 +$10 +27%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $2 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $2 0m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $2 0m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $2 0m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $2 0m
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $2 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $1 0m
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $2 0m
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $2 0m
BNB Up or Down - June 28, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $3 0m
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $2 0m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $2 1m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $2 1m
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $2 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $1 1m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $2 1m
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $2 1m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $2 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $2 1m
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $2 1m
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $2 1m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $1 1m
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $2 1m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $2 1m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 1m
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $2 1m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 1m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $172.97 · official $209.97 · 3402 history records