Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T10:29:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7D 0x7dad…816c other 14 markets active 2h ago coverage 178d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$484 (-67%) realized −$484 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate85%11W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$52per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$60now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$246
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 75% −$484
other 14% $0
world 4% $0
politics 2% $0
crypto 2% $0
weather 1% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-19.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 -28.2% -35.0% 50% 50% -84.7%
≤90d 10 -14.4% -22.5% 80% 10% -81.2%
all 13 -10.9% -19.4% 85% 8% -76.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.4% 8% -76.2%
10% -27.1% 8% -78.5%
15% -34.2% 8% -80.6%
20% -40.6% 0% -82.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 91% · top 2 93% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -79% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -74% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$250 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

178d coverage
Net worth$60
Realized−$484
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)85%
Wins / losses11 / 2
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)13 / 14
History coverage178d
Avg bet$52
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $61 $60 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 02 $264 −$261 -99%
Hawks vs. Knicks May 25 $35 +$15 +44%
No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil's March 2026 meeting? Apr 28 $8 $0 +5%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31? Apr 28 $9 $0 +2%
Will US or Israel strike Iran by December 31, 2026? Apr 28 $10 $0 +0%
Will global temperature increase by more than 1.19ºC in January 2026? Apr 28 $11 $0 +2%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Apr 28 $11 $0 +2%
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by February 28? Apr 28 $12 $0 +0%
Trump-Denmark Greenland deal signed by March 31? Apr 28 $16 $0 +2%
Hawks vs. Knicks Apr 20 $240 −$238 -99%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap Feb 03 $16 $0 +1%
Will Amazon be the second-largest company in the world by market cap o Feb 03 $16 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.60 in December? Jan 09 $13 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $60.33 · official $60.33 (match) · 25 history records