Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T05:54:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
7D 0x7db1…6f9f crypto 46 markets active 1h ago coverage 129d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$78 (-9%) realized −$78 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate59%27W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 129d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$56
other 2% −$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-7.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +5.0% -5.0% 71% 50% -1.3%
≤30d 14 +5.0% -5.0% 71% 50% -1.3%
≤90d 14 +5.0% -5.0% 71% 50% -1.3%
all 46 +2.1% -7.6% 59% 50% -17.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.6% 50% -17.5%
10% -16.4% 39% -25.4%
15% -24.5% 28% -32.6%
20% -31.9% 20% -39.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +34% → late -30% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$13 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

129d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$78
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses27 / 19
Open positions0
Markets (closed)46 / 46
History coverage129d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 46 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 22 $66 +$26 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 22 $51 +$10 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 22 $67 +$17 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 22 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 22 $51 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 22 $77 +$10 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 22 $10 −$7 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 22 $40 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 22 $15 +$3 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 22 $9 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$2 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 22 $17 +$4 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 22 $1 +$2 +228%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Mar 02 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Mar 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Mar 02 $21 −$5 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Mar 02 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Mar 02 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Mar 02 $86 −$86 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Mar 02 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Mar 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Mar 02 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Mar 02 $20 −$8 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Mar 02 $30 −$21 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Mar 02 $42 +$5 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Mar 02 $20 +$8 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Mar 02 $7 +$3 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Mar 02 $7 +$5 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Mar 02 $10 +$5 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Mar 02 $11 +$9 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Mar 02 $1 +$6 +610%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Mar 02 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Hillary say "Island" during her Epstein testimony? Mar 02 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Feb 13 $18 +$18 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Feb 13 $8 +$5 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Feb 13 $20 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Feb 13 $8 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Feb 13 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Feb 13 $14 +$13 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Feb 13 $7 +$5 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Feb 13 $7 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Feb 13 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Feb 13 $5 +$2 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Feb 13 $5 +$2 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Feb 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET SELL Down 85¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET SELL Up 68¢ $33 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET SELL Up 94¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET SELL Down 31¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET SELL Down 83¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET SELL Down 74¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET SELL Up 85¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET SELL Up 78¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET SELL Up 72¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET SELL Down 14¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $3 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 163 history records