Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T07:14:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7D 0x7db2…09e8 sports 170 markets active 1h ago coverage 157d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$12 (-0%) realized −$12 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate14%23W / 147L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$48per market
Trades / day4.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 29% −$3
politics 24% −$2
other 18% −$2
economics 9% −$1
culture 7% $0
world 6% −$2
crypto 4% −$1
tech 3% $0
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -3.4% -12.6% 0% 0% -12.6%
≤30d 3 -1.2% -10.6% 0% 0% -10.9%
≤90d 4 -1.0% -10.4% 0% 0% -10.5%
all 170 -0.1% -9.6% 14% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 63% · top 2 69% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% too few recent
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.28 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.27 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

157d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses23 / 147
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)170 / 170
History coverage157d
Avg bet$48
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 170 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Buffalo Sabres be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion? Jun 19 $48 −$2 -3%
Will Raphinha be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $48 $0 -0%
Will Victoria Mboko win the 2026 Women’s French Open? May 26 $18 $0 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 18 $49 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Mar 04 $88 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series? Mar 04 $42 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 03 $57 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 03 $219 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 02 $49 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Mar 02 $49 $0 -0%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 02 $79 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 02 $258 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 02 $140 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Mar 02 $97 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Mar 02 $147 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 02 $81 $0 -0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 02 $262 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 02 $96 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? Mar 02 $50 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? Mar 02 $42 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 02 $19 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Mar 02 $138 $0 -0%
Will there be no new Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? Mar 02 $40 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Mar 02 $227 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 02 $119 $0 -0%
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? Mar 02 $43 $0 -0%
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 02 $96 $0 -0%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026? Mar 02 $51 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 02 $287 $0 -0%
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 02 $153 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 02 $172 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 02 $50 $0 -0%
Will Bodo Glimt win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 02 $46 $0 -0%
Will Hassan Rouhani be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 02 $47 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Mar 02 $153 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Mar 02 $105 $0 -0%
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? Mar 02 $178 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 02 $43 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in March? Mar 02 $48 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 02 $197 $0 -0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 02 $52 $0 -0%
Will Connecticut win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 02 $50 $0 -1%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 02 $51 $0 -0%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 02 $42 $0 -1%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Mar 02 $252 $0 +0%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? Mar 02 $102 $0 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Mar 02 $108 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 02 $116 −$1 -1%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 02 $97 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 01 $6 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Buffalo Sabres be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion? SELL No 94¢ $46 1h
Will the Buffalo Sabres be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion? BUY No 97¢ $48 7h
Will Raphinha be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $48 11d
Will Raphinha be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $48 12d
Will Victoria Mboko win the 2026 Women’s French Open? SELL No 98¢ $18 24d
Will Victoria Mboko win the 2026 Women’s French Open? BUY No 98¢ $18 24d
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 98¢ $49 32d
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $3 34d
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $40 34d
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $6 34d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee SELL Yes 98¢ $39 106d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee BUY Yes 98¢ $39 106d
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 95¢ $42 107d
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 96¢ $42 107d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $49 107d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $49 108d
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 97¢ $45 108d
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 97¢ $45 108d
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $49 108d
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $49 108d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 97¢ $49 108d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 97¢ $49 108d
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? SELL No 97¢ $40 108d
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? BUY No 97¢ $40 108d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $42 108d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $42 108d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 91¢ $44 108d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 92¢ $44 108d
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $50 108d
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $51 108d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 742 history records