Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T00:38:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
7D 0x7db3…c579 crypto 1373 markets active 0h ago coverage 84d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 83d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,280 (-4%) realized −$1,313 · open +$33
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate45%710W / 870L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day31.5pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$169now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 84d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 91% −$1,392
other 7% −$248
sports 2% −$64
world 0% −$100
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-24.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 240 -81.1% -82.9% 7% 6% -63.3%
≤30d 246 -79.5% -81.5% 7% 7% -62.8%
≤90d 1580 -16.1% -24.1% 45% 44% -21.1%
all 1580 -16.1% -24.1% 45% 44% -21.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -24.1% 44% -21.1%
10% ← realistic here -31.4% 44% -28.7%
15% -38.0% 42% -35.6%
20% -44.1% 39% -41.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -31% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$19 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

84d coverage
Net worth$169
Realized−$1,313
Unrealized+$33
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses710 / 870
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1580 / 1373
History coverage84d ⚠
Avg bet$24
Trades / day31.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1580 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 68¢ 84¢ $136 $169 +$33 (+24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 499 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 24 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 24 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 24 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 24 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 24 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 24 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 24 $57 −$57 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 24 $47 −$47 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 24 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 24 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 24 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 24 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 24 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 24 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 24 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 24 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 24 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 24 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 24 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 24 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 24 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 24 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 24 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 24 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 24 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 24 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 24 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 24 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 24 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 24 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 24 $6 −$6 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 14m
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $137 1h
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $24 1h
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $82 4h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $200 5h
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu SELL Yes 1¢ $68 5h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $173 10h
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY Yes 2¢ $206 12h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 19h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 19h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 93¢ $186 19h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL Yes 49¢ $311 20h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $204 20h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $131 22h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 10¢ $14 23h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $37 23h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 12¢ $37 23h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 24h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 94¢ $160 26h
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 29¢ $237 26h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 32¢ $102 28h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 41¢ $102 28h
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 24¢ $205 29h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $155 29h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $15 29h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 84¢ $171 29h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 63¢ $100 31h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 66¢ $32 45h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 1¢ $5 45h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $168.99 · official $168.99 (match) · 3500 history records