Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T05:49:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7D 0x7db4…6a91 crypto 52 markets active 1h ago coverage 17d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -31% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate38%20W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day6.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$65
7 days−$65
14 days−$75
30 days−$76
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 83% −$64
other 16% +$6
sports 1% −$15
tech 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-38.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +5.2% -4.8% 43% 29% -19.7%
≤30d 52 -31.4% -38.0% 38% 27% -15.9%
≤90d 52 -31.4% -38.0% 38% 27% -15.9%
all 52 -31.4% -38.0% 38% 27% -15.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -38.0% 27% -15.9%
10% -43.9% 23% -23.9%
15% -49.3% 17% -31.3%
20% -54.3% 13% -38.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -31% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late -43% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$7 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses20 / 32
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)52 / 52
History coverage17d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day6.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 52 Trades
no open positions (29 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 29 $16 +$6 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 29 $52 −$39 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 29 $26 +$14 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 29 $106 −$56 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 29 $100 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 29 $130 +$4 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 29 $36 −$2 -5%
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 1 Canada? Jun 28 $1 +$6 +596%
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 0 Canada? Jun 28 $100 +$11 +11%
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 0 Canada? Jun 28 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: South Africa 2 - 1 Canada? Jun 28 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 2 Canada? Jun 28 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 1 Canada? Jun 28 $1 −$1 -98%
South Africa vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score Jun 28 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 3 DR Congo? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 2 DR Congo? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 3 DR Congo? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 2 DR Congo? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 3 DR Congo? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 16 $17 −$16 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 16 $14 +$8 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $85 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 16 $15 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$13 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$7 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 13 $50 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 13 $25 +$6 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 13 $25 +$6 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 13 $76 +$23 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 12 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 12 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$4 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$7 +136%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 12 $25 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 12 $16 −$15 -96%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
SpaceX IPO: Will Elon Musk Ring the Bell? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET SELL Up 44¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET SELL Up 10¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET SELL Up 19¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 0 Canada? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 12h
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 1 Canada? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 12h
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 0 Canada? BUY No 90¢ $100 12h
Exact Score: South Africa 2 - 1 Canada? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 12h
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 2 Canada? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 12h
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 1 Canada? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 12h
South Africa vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $10 12h
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 3 DR Congo? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 11d
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 2 DR Congo? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 121 history records