Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:36:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7D 0x7db9…668a weather 163 markets active 0h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$77 (+1%) realized +$121 · open −$44
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate76%113W / 36L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day17.9pace
Fees−$25est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$302now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$673
7 days+$250
14 days+$241
30 days+$241
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 40% −$68
sports 37% +$1,215
other 21% −$942
crypto 1% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-15.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 121 -4.4% -13.5% 83% 28% -5.3%
≤30d 149 -6.4% -15.3% 76% 30% -5.5%
≤90d 149 -6.4% -15.3% 76% 30% -5.5%
all 149 -6.4% -15.3% 76% 30% -5.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.3% 30% -5.5%
10% -23.4% 9% -14.6%
15% -30.8% 8% -22.8%
20% -37.6% 8% -30.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 70% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
58% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$33 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.2 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$302
Realized+$121
Unrealized−$44
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses113 / 36
Est. fees paid−$25
Open positions14
Markets (closed)149 / 163
History coverage10d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day17.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 149 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 18? Yes 90¢ 100¢ $25 $28 +$3 (+11%)
Will the lowest temperature in London be 17°C on June 18? Yes 90¢ 98¢ $25 $27 +$2 (+10%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 18? Yes 82¢ 98¢ $23 $27 +$4 (+19%)
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 18? Yes 92¢ 99¢ $25 $27 +$2 (+7%)
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 18? Yes 92¢ 96¢ $25 $27 +$1 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 18? Yes 88¢ 92¢ $24 $26 +$1 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 18? Yes 90¢ 90¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+1%)
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 18? Yes 90¢ 90¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 18? Yes 89¢ 90¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 18? Yes 88¢ 85¢ $24 $24 −$1 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C or below on June 18? Yes 90¢ 80¢ $25 $22 −$3 (-12%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 18? Yes 90¢ 72¢ $25 $20 −$5 (-20%)
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be 61°F or below on June 19? Yes 90¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 18? Yes 90¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 29 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 17? Jun 18 $25 +$2 +9%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on Jun Jun 18 $26 +$2 +9%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 17? Jun 18 $21 +$2 +9%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $1,406 +$230 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? Jun 18 $25 +$3 +11%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 16°C on June 17? Jun 17 $25 +$2 +10%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $34 −$33 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $25 +$3 +10%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $306 +$603 +197%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $194 +$10 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C or below on June 17? Jun 17 $25 +$3 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 17? Jun 17 $25 +$3 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $25 +$3 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on June 17? Jun 17 $25 +$3 +11%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 17? Jun 17 $25 +$3 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $25 +$3 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $25 +$2 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $25 +$3 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $25 +$3 +11%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 17? Jun 17 $26 +$2 +9%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 17? Jun 17 $22 +$6 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $23 +$5 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on June 16? Jun 17 $25 +$2 +10%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on Jun Jun 17 $25 +$3 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 16? Jun 17 $25 +$2 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $26 −$25 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 16? Jun 16 $25 +$2 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 16? Jun 16 $24 +$3 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $49 +$5 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $25 +$2 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $24 +$3 +11%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 16? Jun 16 $24 +$3 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $25 +$2 +8%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 16? Jun 16 $24 +$3 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 16? Jun 16 $24 +$4 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 16? Jun 16 $25 −$24 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 16? Jun 16 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $25 −$24 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on June 15? Jun 16 $10 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 15? Jun 16 $10 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 15? Jun 16 $10 +$1 +7%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 15? Jun 16 $10 +$1 +11%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 13°C on June 15? Jun 15 $10 +$1 +7%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $305 −$300 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on June 15? Jun 15 $10 +$1 +13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C or below on June 18? BUY Yes 90¢ $25 4m
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 18? BUY Yes 90¢ $25 7m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 18? BUY Yes 88¢ $25 9m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 18? BUY Yes 90¢ $25 17m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 18? BUY Yes 82¢ $23 40m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 18? BUY Yes 89¢ $25 55m
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 18? BUY Yes 88¢ $25 58m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 18? BUY Yes 90¢ $25 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 86¢ $1,406 1h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 17°C on June 18? BUY Yes 90¢ $25 2h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be 61°F or below on June BUY Yes 90¢ $25 3h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 18? BUY Yes 90¢ $25 3h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 30¢ $34 7h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 18? BUY Yes 90¢ $25 8h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 18? BUY Yes 92¢ $26 9h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 18? BUY Yes 92¢ $25 10h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 17¢ $51 10h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $306 11h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 15¢ $20 11h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 35¢ $204 12h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 32¢ $194 12h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 91¢ $25 17h
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 17? BUY Yes 92¢ $1 18h
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 17? BUY Yes 92¢ $16 18h
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 17? BUY Yes 90¢ $9 18h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on Jun BUY Yes 92¢ $14 20h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on Jun BUY Yes 92¢ $12 20h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 17? BUY Yes 90¢ $25 21h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 17? BUY Yes 90¢ $25 22h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 90¢ $25 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $302.38 · official $305.02 (match) · 301 history records