Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:23:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
7D 0x7dbb…fc9c other 61 markets active 1h ago coverage 392d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$143 (-11%) realized −$142 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate41%24W / 34L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$97
7 days+$25
14 days+$25
30 days+$25
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 38% −$19
sports 35% −$75
crypto 10% +$26
politics 9% −$35
world 8% −$100
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-28.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 -25.5% -32.6% 33% 33% -6.3%
≤30d 39 -25.5% -32.6% 33% 33% -6.3%
≤90d 39 -25.5% -32.6% 33% 33% -6.3%
all 58 -21.5% -28.9% 41% 34% -24.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.9% 34% -24.0%
10% -35.7% 31% -31.2%
15% -42.0% 29% -37.9%
20% -47.6% 22% -44.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -38% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$18 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

392d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized−$142
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses24 / 34
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions3
Markets (closed)58 / 61
History coverage392d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 58 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-2%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Draw at halftime? Yes 39¢ 38¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 23 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 0 Panama? Jun 18 $8 −$7 -87%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $26 −$25 -98%
Exact Score: England 2 - 3 Croatia? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Panama leading at halftime? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Croatia leading at halftime? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $14 +$17 +122%
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 2 Jordan? Jun 17 $6 −$2 -31%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 2 Jordan? Jun 17 $5 +$3 +49%
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 2 Jordan? Jun 17 $7 −$7 -97%
Exact Score: Austria 0 - 2 Jordan? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $40 +$17 +41%
Argentina to win the second half? Jun 17 $5 +$5 +89%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 17 $5 +$7 +145%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $30 +$14 +48%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $66 −$65 -98%
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 2 New Zealand? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $15 +$8 +52%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 0 New Zealand? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 2 New Zealand? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -97%
IR Iran to score first vs. New Zealand? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -99%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $35 +$15 +43%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $35 −$35 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $5 +$2 +34%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $15 +$15 +100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $20 +$16 +77%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $20 −$8 -40%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $20 −$14 -68%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $31 +$80 +262%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $19 −$1 -4%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $35 −$11 -33%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Neither team to score first? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -91%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$1 -10%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $104 +$129 +124%
Will USA win the 2026 World Baseball Classic? Mar 16 $57 −$57 -100%
Final Stage: Dominican Rep. vs. USA Mar 16 $37 −$17 -46%
Will Venezuela win the 2026 World Baseball Classic? Mar 15 $11 $0 +3%
Will Dominican Republic win the 2026 World Baseball Classic? Mar 15 $40 −$40 -100%
Final Stage: Dominican Rep. vs. South Korea Mar 13 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 25 $39 −$29 -75%
UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira Jun 25 $104 −$104 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $110K in June? Jun 11 $20 +$4 +22%
Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 03 $32 −$19 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 1? Jun 01 $15 +$1 +9%
Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? Jun 01 $15 +$10 +68%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 9¢ $6 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 39¢ $10 1h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $26 1h
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 0 Panama? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: England 2 - 3 Croatia? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 5h
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 0 Panama? BUY Yes 8¢ $8 20h
Panama leading at halftime? BUY Yes 23¢ $2 20h
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 20h
Croatia leading at halftime? BUY Yes 17¢ $3 20h
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? SELL Yes 99¢ $19 20h
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 2 Jordan? SELL Yes 2¢ $4 20h
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 20h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 2 Jordan? SELL Yes 6¢ $8 20h
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? SELL Yes 11¢ $13 21h
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 2 Jordan? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 22h
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 2 Jordan? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 22h
Exact Score: Austria 0 - 2 Jordan? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 22h
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 2 Jordan? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 22h
Exact Score: Austria 0 - 2 Jordan? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 22h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 2 Jordan? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 22h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 22h
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 7¢ $4 22h
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 2 Jordan? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 22h
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 2 Jordan? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 22h
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 2 Jordan? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 22h
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 22h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $57 23h
Argentina to win the second half? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 23h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.90 · official $39.90 (match) · 147 history records