Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T04:17:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7D 0x7dbc…d333 other 175 markets active 1h ago coverage 163d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$1,284 (+1%) realized +$1,284 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate23%40W / 134L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown57%max
Avg bet$1,335per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$231now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$15
14 days−$39
30 days+$190
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$280
politics 36% −$119
sports 7% +$1,616
world 3% +$34
culture 2% −$10
economics 2% −$2
tech 2% −$4
crypto 1% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-4.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 41 +12.9% +2.1% 17% 12% -9.3%
≤90d 104 +4.7% -5.3% 9% 6% -9.0%
all 174 +6.2% -4.0% 23% 14% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.0% 14% -9.0%
10% -13.1% 14% -17.7%
15% -21.5% 14% -25.7%
20% -29.2% 11% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 59% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,885) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +7% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$58 vs −$8 · ×7.03 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.16 per $1 lost it wins $2.16
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

163d coverage
Net worth$231
Realized+$1,284
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses40 / 134
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)174 / 175
History coverage163d
Avg bet$1,335
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown57%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 174 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $231 $231 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 22 $1,562 −$2 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 20 $1,885 −$2 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $1,956 −$3 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 18 $396 −$1 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 17 $1,054 −$2 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 17 $2,308 −$3 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $955 −$1 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $3,314 −$3 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $3,029 −$5 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $2,397 −$2 -0%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $1,021 −$2 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $2,202 −$3 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 10 $3,757 −$3 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $876 −$1 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $5,262 −$5 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $1,126 −$2 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $1,053 −$2 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $1,801 −$2 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $2,990 −$3 -0%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 06 $61 +$26 +44%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 04 $1,771 −$3 -0%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $59 +$98 +165%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $2,198 −$3 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $2,970 −$5 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $3,418 −$5 -0%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 02 $40 +$56 +140%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 02 $1,026 −$1 -0%
Will XRP reach $1.80 in May? Jun 02 $367 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in May? Jun 02 $414 $0 +0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 01 $1,315 −$2 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $4,335 −$4 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 28 $246 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 27 $1,529 −$2 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $449 −$1 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 26 $1,839 −$2 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $6,382 −$7 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 25 $751 −$1 -0%
Will SS Lazio win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $55 +$40 +73%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $2,132 −$2 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $680 −$1 -0%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $49 +$54 +109%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? May 22 $1,119 −$2 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 22 $2,673 −$3 -0%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 22 $81 −$81 -100%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 21 $898 −$1 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 21 $893 −$1 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 20 $2,238 −$3 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? May 18 $2,746 −$4 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 18 $3,331 −$5 -0%
Trump out as President by May 31? May 18 $1,381 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $754 47m
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $755 1h
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $630 2d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $631 2d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $272 3d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $272 3d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $395 4d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $396 4d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,053 4d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,054 4d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,140 4d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,142 5d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,165 6d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,166 6d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $954 6d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $955 6d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $850 6d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $850 7d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $980 8d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $981 8d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $1,036 8d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $1,038 9d
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $231 10d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,020 10d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,021 11d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,000 11d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,001 11d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,168 11d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,170 12d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $875 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $231.28 · official $231.28 (match) · 617 history records