Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T22:53:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7D 0x7dbd…4a5c politics 20 markets active 1d ago coverage 135d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%1W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$96per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% $0
politics 43% −$1
crypto 5% $0
sports 5% $0
economics 5% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 13 -0.1% -9.6% 8% 0% -9.6%
all 20 -0.1% -9.6% 5% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

135d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses1 / 19
Open positions0
Markets (closed)20 / 20
History coverage135d
Avg bet$96
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 20 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $90 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $90 $0 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $90 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 21 $90 $0 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 19 $91 $0 -0%
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 17 $91 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 14 $91 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 10 $91 $0 -0%
Trump out as President by April 30? Apr 18 $92 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $92 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $92 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 06 $92 $0 +0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 01 $184 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 22 $92 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Mar 16 $92 $0 +0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 14 $92 $0 +0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 10 $92 $0 +0%
Will Athletic Bilbao win the 2025–26 La Liga? Mar 06 $92 $0 +0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 04 $92 $0 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 12 $92 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $90 24h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $90 36h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $90 11d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $90 12d
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $90 23d
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $90 24d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $90 33d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $90 35d
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $91 35d
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $91 36d
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $91 37d
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $2 37d
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $54 37d
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $35 37d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $91 40d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $91 41d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $91 44d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $91 44d
Trump out as President by April 30? SELL No 99¢ $92 65d
Trump out as President by April 30? BUY No 99¢ $92 66d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $92 67d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $92 68d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $92 70d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $92 71d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $92 78d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $92 78d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $92 83d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $92 83d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $92 93d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $92 93d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 77 history records