Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:59:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7D 0x7dbf…0a5a other 28 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$66 (-11%) realized −$63 · open −$3
Gross ROI / mkt +29% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +8% what you keep after slip
Net edge+8%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate42%10W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day13.5pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit39%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 81% −$24
sports 12% +$20
crypto 7% −$39
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+16.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 +29.2% +16.9% 42% 38% -16.8%
≤30d 24 +29.2% +16.9% 42% 38% -16.8%
≤90d 24 +29.2% +16.9% 42% 38% -16.8%
all 24 +29.2% +16.9% 42% 38% -16.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +16.9% 38% -16.8%
10% +5.7% 33% -24.8%
15% -4.5% 33% -32.1%
20% -13.9% 25% -38.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +29% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +57% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$14 · ×1.11 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized−$63
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses10 / 14
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions4
Markets (closed)24 / 28
History coverage4d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day13.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit39%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 41¢ 40¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-4%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $5 −$0 (-7%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $4 −$1 (-23%)
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -93%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $63 +$28 +45%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $30 −$30 -98%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 +$17 +322%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $21 −$9 -45%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $15 +$4 +23%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $24 +$16 +67%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$2 +16%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $113 +$41 +37%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $40 −$40 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Neither team to score first? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $38 −$37 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $31 −$2 -7%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $39 −$38 -98%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $30 +$20 +65%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $33 $0 +1%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $4 +$3 +97%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $2 +$25 +1225%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 30¢ $3 3m
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $31 1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes $0 1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 85¢ $85 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 79¢ $7 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 60¢ $5 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 48¢ $30 4h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 31¢ $22 4h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes $5 5h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $58 16h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes $0 17h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 17h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 17h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 82¢ $41 17h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 48¢ $24 17h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes 37¢ $18 17h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 12¢ $11 17h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 18h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 20h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 21h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes $1 23h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? SELL Yes 11¢ $12 23h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes $10 24h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $20 25h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 80¢ $98 26h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 45¢ $56 26h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 68¢ $56 26h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $57 28h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $40 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.36 · official $40.36 (match) · 57 history records