Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T07:38:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
7D 0x7dc6…4b55 sports 13 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$703 (-13%) realized −$666 · open −$37
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate62%5W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$425per market
Trades / day8.5pace
Fees−$64est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$1,813now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 91% −$246
other 9% −$500
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)-5.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +4.4% -5.6% 62% 62% -27.3%
≤30d 8 +4.4% -5.6% 62% 62% -27.3%
≤90d 8 +4.4% -5.6% 62% 62% -27.3%
all 8 +4.4% -5.6% 62% 62% -27.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.6% 62% -27.3%
10% -14.6% 62% -34.2%
15% -22.8% 62% -40.6%
20% -30.4% 38% -46.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 68% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$238 vs −$633 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$1,813
Realized−$666
Unrealized−$37
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses5 / 3
Est. fees paid−$64
Open positions5
Markets (closed)8 / 13
History coverage2d
Avg bet$425
Trades / day8.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mallorca Championships: Corentin Moutet vs Marton Fucsovics Marton Fucsovics 44¢ 44¢ $500 $506 +$6 (+1%)
Bad Homburg Open: Alexandra Eala vs Elise Mertens Elise Mertens 57¢ 54¢ $500 $469 −$31 (-6%)
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Vilius Gaubas vs Michael Mmoh Michael Mmoh 62¢ 62¢ $450 $450 +$0 (+0%)
Bad Homburg Open: Naomi Osaka vs Magdalena Frech Naomi Osaka 74¢ 70¢ $300 $286 −$14 (-5%)
Mallorca Championships: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Martin Landaluce Martin Landaluce 58¢ 60¢ $100 $103 +$3 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: QUAZAR vs Fire Flux Esports (BO3) - ESEA European Fina Jun 21 $152 +$102 +67%
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5 Jun 21 $558 +$520 +93%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $202 +$84 +42%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Zeynep Sonmez vs Elsa Jacquemot Jun 21 $504 +$200 +40%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $712 −$700 -98%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla Jun 21 $707 −$700 -99%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 6.5 Corners Jun 21 $304 +$284 +93%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $510 −$500 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bad Homburg Open: Alexandra Eala vs Elise Mertens BUY Elise Mertens 57¢ $506 1h
Mallorca Championships: Corentin Moutet vs Marton Fucsovics BUY Marton Fucsovics 44¢ $508 1h
Mallorca Championships: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Martin Landaluce BUY Martin Landaluce 58¢ $101 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Vilius Gaubas vs Michael Mmoh BUY Michael Mmoh 62¢ $455 1h
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 51¢ $558 14h
Counter-Strike: QUAZAR vs Fire Flux Esports (BO3) - ESEA European Fina BUY QUAZAR 59¢ $152 17h
Bad Homburg Open: Naomi Osaka vs Magdalena Frech BUY Naomi Osaka 74¢ $302 24h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY FURIA 41¢ $712 25h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Zeynep Sonmez vs Elsa Jacquemot BUY Zeynep Sonmez 71¢ $504 25h
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 70¢ $202 25h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Paper Rex 66¢ $707 25h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 6.5 Corners BUY Over 51¢ $304 35h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 33¢ $510 37h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,813.38 · official $1,813.38 (match) · 19 history records