Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T12:23:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7D 0x7dc7…9444 crypto 76 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (103 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$17 (-11%) realized −$17 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate51%39W / 37L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day102.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% −$22
other 2% $0
sports 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (103 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-25.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 76 -17.7% -25.6% 51% 21% -22.9%
≤30d 76 -17.7% -25.6% 51% 21% -22.9%
≤90d 76 -17.7% -25.6% 51% 21% -22.9%
all 76 -17.7% -25.6% 51% 21% -22.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover102.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -25.6% 21% -22.9%
10% ← realistic here -32.7% 7% -30.2%
15% -39.2% 3% -37.0%
20% -45.2% 3% -43.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
56% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -22% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.38 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses39 / 37
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)76 / 76
History coverage2d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day102.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 76 Trades
no open positions (11 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +28%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$1 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -52%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $1 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$1 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$2 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET SELL Down 89¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET SELL Down 87¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $2 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $1 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $1 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $1 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $1 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $1 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $1 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET SELL Up 86¢ $2 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET SELL Down 86¢ $1 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $1 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET SELL Down 73¢ $1 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $1 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET SELL Down 78¢ $1 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $1 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $1 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET SELL Up 76¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET SELL Up 56¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET SELL Up 65¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 253 history records