Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T00:41:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
7D 0x7dc8…8f53 other 96 markets active 2h ago coverage 183d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$83 (+2%) realized +$95 · open −$12
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +3% what you keep after slip
Net edge+3%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate51%48W / 47L
Drawdown92%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$30
7 days−$45
14 days−$429
30 days−$140
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$119
world 35% −$205
crypto 6% +$130
tech 5% +$95
politics 4% +$114
sports 3% +$6
finance 2% +$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)+3.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 20 -11.0% -19.5% 45% 45% -16.3%
≤90d 55 +2.8% -7.0% 53% 45% -7.8%
all 95 +13.9% +3.0% 51% 43% -7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.0% 43% -7.9%
10% -6.8% 35% -16.7%
15% -15.8% 32% -24.8%
20% -24.1% 22% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +18% → late +10% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$26 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

183d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized+$95
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses48 / 47
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)95 / 96
History coverage183d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown92%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 95 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes $14 $2 −$12 (-85%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 29 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 27 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $15 −$15 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $49 +$23 +46%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $122 −$121 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $253 −$250 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $105 −$105 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $27 −$26 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $21 −$20 -97%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $51 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $202 +$115 +57%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $103 −$82 -79%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $76 +$87 +114%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $51 +$21 +42%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $51 +$19 +37%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 11 $55 +$8 +14%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? Jun 09 $51 +$75 +146%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $15 −$8 -53%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $102 +$159 +155%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 29 $102 −$3 -3%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Xtreme Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $51 +$13 +26%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? May 28 $191 +$26 +13%
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026? May 28 $145 +$13 +9%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? May 28 $99 +$10 +10%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 27 $16 +$3 +16%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28? May 27 $22 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 26? May 26 $104 +$11 +11%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May? May 22 $51 +$5 +10%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 22? May 22 $51 +$11 +21%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? May 12 $52 +$18 +36%
Epstein suicide note released by May 8? May 10 $12 −$11 -95%
FDA approves a psychedelic for medical use in 2026? May 06 $7 −$1 -12%
Will OpenAI announce earbuds or headphones in 2026? May 03 $10 $0 -5%
Gemini 3.5 released by June 30? May 03 $40 −$1 -2%
Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027? May 03 $51 +$19 +38%
Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in April? Apr 29 $6 +$32 +584%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-29? Apr 29 $20 −$20 -98%
Gensyn FDV above $400M one day after launch? Apr 29 $37 +$18 +47%
Putin meets with Iranian officials by May 15? Apr 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Apr 24 $21 +$23 +107%
Will MegaETH launch a token by June 30, 2026? Apr 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Genius FDV above $500M one day after launch? Apr 14 $50 +$21 +42%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Apr 13 $5 $0 -2%
Will Tisza win the most national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian parl Apr 13 $8 +$2 +20%
Will Iran strike Iraq by April 30, 2026? Apr 13 $11 +$11 +106%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? Apr 12 $53 +$19 +37%
Genius FDV above $200M one day after launch? Apr 11 $5 −$5 -96%
Will Vance visit the Middle East by April 10? Apr 10 $31 +$22 +72%
Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026? Apr 09 $112 +$23 +20%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 08 $6 +$2 +40%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by April 30, 2026? Apr 06 $54 −$2 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 44¢ $31 2h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 57¢ $15 6d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $49 7d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $122 12d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 65¢ $51 12d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $202 12d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 91¢ $105 12d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 45¢ $27 12d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 39¢ $13 12d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 39¢ $7 12d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 81¢ $51 13d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $202 14d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 48¢ $2 14d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 47¢ $51 14d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 24¢ $20 14d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $51 14d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $76 15d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $73 16d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $51 16d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL No 70¢ $43 16d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $2 16d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL No 70¢ $28 16d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 43¢ $63 16d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 38¢ $55 16d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $49 16d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes $4 16d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 49¢ $51 16d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes $5 16d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes $5 17d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 92¢ $126 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.06 · official $2.06 (match) · 327 history records