Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T14:37:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7D 0x7dc9…8fbf sports 19 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$63 (-13%) realized −$63 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate47%8W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$62now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$69
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-21.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -13.7% -21.9% 47% 47% -24.7%
≤30d 17 -13.7% -21.9% 47% 47% -24.7%
≤90d 17 -13.7% -21.9% 47% 47% -24.7%
all 17 -13.7% -21.9% 47% 47% -24.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.9% 47% -24.7%
10% -29.4% 47% -31.9%
15% -36.2% 47% -38.5%
20% -42.5% 35% -44.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 49% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$24 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$62
Realized−$63
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses8 / 9
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions2
Markets (closed)17 / 19
History coverage7d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Boston Red Sox 54¢ 55¢ $35 $36 +$0 (+1%)
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Atlanta Braves 58¢ 56¢ $27 $26 −$1 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 17 $17 −$17 -100%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 17 $25 +$16 +65%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 17 $12 +$13 +109%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 16 $17 −$17 -100%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 16 $13 −$13 -100%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 16 $18 +$9 +48%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 16 $26 +$13 +50%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 14 $26 −$26 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 14 $45 −$45 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 13 $14 +$15 +105%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $29 −$29 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 13 $38 −$38 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 13 $9 +$9 +109%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 13 $56 +$44 +79%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $17 −$17 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 12 $29 +$29 +101%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 58¢ $27 1h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 54¢ $36 1h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 60¢ $25 43h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 47¢ $12 44h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 49¢ $17 45h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Chicago Cubs 67¢ $18 3d
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 66¢ $26 3d
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Los Angeles Angels 46¢ $13 3d
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 47¢ $17 3d
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY Atlanta Braves 48¢ $14 4d
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Baltimore Orioles 54¢ $45 4d
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals BUY Seattle Mariners 50¢ $26 5d
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Chicago Cubs 47¢ $9 5d
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY New York Yankees 51¢ $29 6d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 57¢ $38 6d
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 55¢ $56 6d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 40¢ $15 6d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Golden Knights 42¢ $17 7d
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Baltimore Orioles 49¢ $29 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $61.84 · official $61.85 (match) · 36 history records