Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T17:26:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
7D 0x7dca…c48d sports 597 markets active 1h ago coverage 210d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 209d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$956 (+1%) realized +$990 · open −$34
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate47%278W / 318L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown70%max
Avg bet$254per market
Trades / day15.1pace
Fees−$224est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$93
7 days+$10
14 days−$93
30 days−$289
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 68% +$1,300
other 17% +$1,962
crypto 14% −$1,492
politics 1% −$66
world 0% +$53
finance 0% +$2
economics 0% −$21
weather 0% −$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-14.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -13.7% -21.9% 36% 36% -6.0%
≤30d 44 -27.7% -34.6% 30% 25% -16.5%
≤90d 204 -14.7% -22.8% 41% 28% -12.4%
all 596 -5.4% -14.4% 47% 30% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.4% 30% -8.4%
10% -22.6% 24% -17.1%
15% -30.1% 20% -25.1%
20% -36.9% 16% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +11% → late -21% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$54 vs −$42 · ×1.28 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

210d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$990
Unrealized−$34
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses278 / 318
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$224
Open positions1
Markets (closed)596 / 597
History coverage210d ⚠
Avg bet$254
Trades / day15.1
Drawdown70%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 596 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs India India 32¢ 0¢ $34 $0 −$34 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 32 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will New Zealand win? Jun 21 $159 +$89 +56%
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 21 $58 −$45 -77%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Bangladesh Jun 20 $87 +$39 +44%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Scotland Jun 20 $7 −$7 -100%
Will England win? Jun 20 $23 −$22 -98%
Will the match end in a draw? Jun 20 $8 −$5 -62%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Ireland Jun 19 $93 +$45 +48%
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 19 $47 +$31 +67%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 19 $0 $0 -99%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland Jun 18 $72 −$58 -81%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs Pakistan Jun 17 $19 −$19 -100%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 17 $95 −$95 -100%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Ireland Jun 16 $26 −$17 -64%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka Jun 16 $18 +$74 +413%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan Jun 14 $42 −$42 -100%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 14 $110 +$78 +71%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 14 $80 +$33 +42%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs South Africa Jun 13 $34 −$34 -100%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Scotland vs Ireland Jun 13 $54 −$10 -18%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Sri Lanka Jun 12 $28 −$27 -98%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 11 $312 −$12 -4%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 09 $40 −$34 -86%
T20 Asian Games, Qualifier: Nepal vs Hong Kong, China Jun 08 $3 −$3 -97%
Will the match end in a draw? Jun 08 $53 −$52 -99%
Will New Zealand win? Jun 06 $33 −$12 -36%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 212.5 Jun 06 $60 −$13 -22%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in June? Jun 05 $35 +$14 +40%
T20 Scotland Tri-Series, Women: Scotland vs Bangladesh Jun 02 $79 −$79 -100%
Will Royal Challengers Bengaluru win the 2026 Indian Premier League? May 31 $124 +$34 +27%
T20 Ireland Tri-Series, Women: Ireland vs Pakistan May 31 $84 −$75 -89%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans May 31 $28 −$28 -100%
T20 Series England vs. India, Women: England vs India May 30 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET May 30 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET May 30 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET May 30 $8 +$23 +276%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? May 30 $29 −$1 -3%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals May 29 $42 −$42 -100%
Will New Zealand win? May 28 $946 +$44 +5%
T20 Series England vs. India, Women: England vs India May 28 $83 −$35 -41%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals May 27 $64 −$7 -12%
T20 Series England vs. New Zealand, Women: England vs New Zealand May 25 $35 −$35 -100%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Delhi Capitals May 24 $45 +$46 +102%
Will Rajasthan Royals win the 2026 Indian Premier League? May 24 $235 −$8 -3%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Punjab Kings May 23 $32 +$3 +10%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Chennai Super Kings May 21 $34 −$34 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? May 21 $27 +$24 +89%
T20 Series England vs. New Zealand, Women: England vs New Zealand May 20 $66 −$66 -100%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Lucknow Super Giants May 19 $85 −$75 -89%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 19 $24 +$14 +58%
Will Pakistan win? May 19 $56 −$36 -65%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs India BUY India 26¢ $5 50m
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs India BUY India 26¢ $3 51m
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs India BUY India 27¢ $8 51m
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs India BUY India 38¢ $7 52m
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs India BUY India 38¢ $5 52m
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs India BUY India 38¢ $2 52m
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs India BUY India 40¢ $3 52m
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs India SELL South Africa 42¢ $41 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs India BUY South Africa 36¢ $16 4h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs India BUY South Africa 36¢ $3 4h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs India BUY South Africa 36¢ $4 4h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs India BUY South Africa 36¢ $6 4h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs India BUY South Africa 36¢ $2 4h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs India BUY South Africa 36¢ $2 5h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs India BUY South Africa 36¢ $3 5h
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia SELL Bangladesh 8¢ $13 9h
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Bangladesh 35¢ $2 9h
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Bangladesh 35¢ $2 9h
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Bangladesh 35¢ $1 9h
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Bangladesh 35¢ $52 9h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Scotland BUY Scotland 7¢ $2 24h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Scotland BUY Scotland 7¢ $1 24h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Scotland BUY Scotland 7¢ $5 24h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Bangladesh BUY Bangladesh 42¢ $11 25h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Bangladesh BUY Bangladesh 42¢ $14 25h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Bangladesh SELL Pakistan 66¢ $66 25h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Bangladesh BUY Pakistan 62¢ $62 26h
Will England win? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 26h
Will the match end in a draw? SELL Yes 2¢ $3 26h
Will the match end in a draw? BUY Yes 5¢ $8 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.05 · official $0.05 (match) · 3500 history records