Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T22:07:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
7D 0x7dcc…a7ee other 6 markets active 2h ago coverage 9d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2,487 (+48%) realized +$486 · open +$2,001
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$868per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$4,009now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$348
7 days−$653
14 days−$674
30 days−$674
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% +$1,327
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-38.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -38.8% -44.6% 0% 0% -30.6%
≤30d 5 -32.5% -38.9% 0% 0% -29.2%
≤90d 5 -32.5% -38.9% 0% 0% -29.2%
all 5 -32.5% -38.9% 0% 0% -29.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -38.9% 0% -29.2%
10% -44.8% 0% -36.0%
15% -50.1% 0% -42.2%
20% -55.0% 0% -47.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -32% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
— vs −$135 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$4,009
Realized+$486
Unrealized+$2,001
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)5 / 6
History coverage9d
Avg bet$868
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? No 30¢ 60¢ $2,008 $4,009 +$2,001 (+100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 26 $95 −$92 -98%
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 3 France? Jun 26 $53 −$6 -11%
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $1,585 −$249 -16%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $1,079 −$305 -28%
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $292 −$21 -7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,008.66 · official $4,008.66 (match) · 20 history records