Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T03:20:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
7D 0x7dcd…c367 crypto 157 markets active 1h ago coverage 70d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$305 (-2%) realized −$305 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR61%break-even
Win rate66%101W / 52L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$105per market
Trades / day3.7pace
Fees−$58est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,719
7 days−$1,844
14 days−$1,844
30 days−$1,844
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 54% −$232
sports 26% −$2,827
other 21% +$1,647
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +61%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -36.5% -42.5% 33% 33% -43.1%
≤30d 9 -36.5% -42.5% 33% 33% -43.1%
≤90d 153 -1.3% -10.7% 66% 61% -17.3%
all 153 -1.3% -10.7% 66% 61% -17.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 61% -17.3%
10% -19.2% 50% -25.2%
15% -27.0% 42% -32.4%
20% -34.2% 31% -39.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +16% → late -18% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$44 vs −$113 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

70d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$305
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses101 / 52
Est. fees paid−$58
Open positions0
Markets (closed)153 / 157
History coverage70d
Avg bet$105
Trades / day3.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 153 Trades
no open positions (14 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $1,649 +$1,200 +73%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $17 +$11 +65%
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 26 $1,977 −$1,948 -98%
New York Liberty vs. Seattle Storm Jun 26 $998 −$983 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $223 −$220 -99%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Indiana Fever Jun 25 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $104 +$139 +134%
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres Jun 24 $15 −$15 -100%
New York Liberty vs. Las Vegas Aces Jun 24 $10 −$10 -99%
Spread: Knicks (-6.5) May 22 $23 +$13 +54%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 22 $101 +$23 +23%
Counter-Strike: Metizport vs Rebels Gaming (BO1) - BC Game Masters Cha May 21 $11 +$12 +105%
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs GenOne (BO3) - BC Game Masters Europe Ser May 21 $62 −$47 -76%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs paiN (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group A May 21 $71 +$67 +95%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Liquid (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Gro May 21 $698 +$292 +42%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs 1WIN (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series P May 21 $102 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: Lynn Vision vs NIP (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group May 21 $113 −$112 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET May 21 $31 +$34 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET May 21 $11 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET May 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET May 21 $3 −$3 -96%
Will Portland Thorns FC win on 2026-05-20? May 21 $81 +$23 +29%
Will Al Najmah Saudi Club win on 2026-05-21? May 20 $51 +$26 +51%
Will Al Ahli Saudi Club win on 2026-05-21? May 20 $201 +$55 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 11AM ET May 20 $51 −$49 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET May 20 $15 −$15 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET May 20 $41 +$29 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET May 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET May 20 $31 +$9 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7AM ET May 20 $24 +$14 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET May 20 $16 +$8 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET May 20 $31 +$11 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET May 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET May 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-05-19? May 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET May 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET May 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET May 20 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET May 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET May 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET May 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET May 20 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET May 20 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET May 20 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET May 20 $51 −$51 -100%
Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-05-17? May 20 $44 −$44 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3AM ET May 20 $102 −$102 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11AM ET May 20 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12PM ET May 20 $89 −$89 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET May 20 $103 −$103 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 100¢ $2,849 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 58¢ $3 3h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 57¢ $1,581 3h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 60¢ $28 5h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 58¢ $36 12h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 60¢ $17 12h
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Houston Astros 49¢ $1,977 14h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5 AND Uruguay vs. Spain: Spain O/U 0.5 AND Ca BUY 29¢ $1 18h
New York Liberty vs. Seattle Storm BUY New York Liberty 49¢ $988 24h
New York Liberty vs. Seattle Storm BUY New York Liberty 50¢ $10 24h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 53¢ $223 2d
Phoenix Mercury vs. Indiana Fever BUY Indiana Fever 40¢ $10 2d
Phoenix Mercury vs. Indiana Fever BUY Indiana Fever 40¢ $10 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 42¢ $104 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND BUY $10 2d
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres BUY Atlanta Braves 24¢ $5 2d
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres BUY Atlanta Braves 48¢ $10 3d
New York Liberty vs. Las Vegas Aces BUY Las Vegas Aces 54¢ $10 3d
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY 57¢ $10 3d
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 AND Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY 54¢ $11 3d
Spread: Knicks (-6.5) SELL Knicks 100¢ $36 35d
Spread: Knicks (-6.5) BUY Knicks 64¢ $23 36d
Cavaliers vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 81¢ $101 36d
Counter-Strike: Metizport vs Rebels Gaming (BO1) - BC Game Masters Cha BUY Rebels Gaming 48¢ $11 36d
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs GenOne (BO3) - BC Game Masters Europe Ser BUY GenOne 75¢ $1 36d
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs GenOne (BO3) - BC Game Masters Europe Ser BUY GenOne 75¢ $10 36d
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs GenOne (BO3) - BC Game Masters Europe Ser BUY GenOne 75¢ $20 36d
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs GenOne (BO3) - BC Game Masters Europe Ser BUY GenOne 58¢ $10 36d
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs GenOne (BO3) - BC Game Masters Europe Ser SELL GenOne 43¢ $14 36d
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs paiN (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group A SELL paiN 99¢ $138 36d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.97 (match) · 339 history records